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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Sunday morning, December 8, 2019
Areas of MODERATE danger still exist on upper elevation northerly facing slopes. Recent warm weather has strengthened the snowpack, but triggering an avalanche on old weak snow near the ground remains possible. With additional snow and wind, the danger will rise to MODERATE for shallow wind drifts and new snow avalanches on a variety of aspects.
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Weather and Snow
As of 6am, the Ogden mountains have picked up a trace to an inch of snow with a current rain/snow line reported down to 6700'. Winds are southwest-veering-to-the-west and blowing 20mph with gusts to 30. Along the highest elevations, winds are 35 gusting to near 50. Temps are in the mid thirties and falling. Snow depths are 2-3' in the Ogden mountains with riding conditions expected to improve with today's storm. By tomorrow, we should see 5-8" of snow with the snow dropping to the valley floor. Winds will be moderate from the northwest and temps will drop to the teens tomorrow.
Another quick system lines up for Wednesday eve with a progressive series of westerlies through the weekend.
Recent Avalanches
None.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Long time patroller and observer Doug Wewer also found the suspect old snow up high in northerly terrain yesterday and you'll see his snow pit below. Full propagation in tests is not a good sign and yet it hasn't correlated to any avalanches, cracking or collapsing of this layering. It warrants caution and those choosing steep northerly terrain should choose terrain that won't kill you if this old October snow roars to life. Across the valley, observer Mike Fogg also found this suspect layering react in snowpits.
All observations can be found here -
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
While it appears that wind, sun, and warmth has jettisoned, if not degraded, the previous weak snow surfaces, this morning's graupel may instead act as a weak layer that sits on a variety of hard sun and wind crusts. Today, target your inquiry to see how sensitive the storm snow is as it slowly adds up in the mountains. Test slopes and quick hand pits often provide some clue to the situation. Shooting cracks also provide evidence. If we see the higher end of snow totals, it should be possible to trigger new storm snow avalanches on a variety of aspects.
Additional Information
With rain down low, shallow wet push-alanches and rollerballs are likely on steep slopes.
Take some time to refresh your Companion Rescue Skills. This includes (1) beacon practice, (2) probing, and (3) strategic shoveling. I encourage others to spend time practicing these skills. Need to learn these skills or take a refresher, consider signing up for a companion rescue course!
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