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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Greg Gagne
Issued by Greg Gagne for
Friday, December 22, 2023
The avalanche danger is LOW and natural and human-triggered avalanches are unlikely. With a poor overnight refreeze and warm temperatures forecast for today, watch for small wet-loose avalanches at the low and mid elevations.
Continue to maintain safe travel habits; this means exposing one person at a time to avalanche terrain, having someone watch them from a safe location, and not traveling above or below other parties.
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Weather and Snow
Happy first day of winter!
As of 6 am, skies are partly cloudy and temperatures range from the upper 20's through mid 30's F. Winds are from the south/southwest and light, gusting into the teens mph along some exposed upper-elevation ridges and peaks along the Ogden Skyline.
Today won't quite feel like the first day of winter with periods of sun and temperatures warming into the upper 30's F. Winds will be from the south/southwest and remain light, gusting into the teens, with stronger gusts possible by the afternoon.
The weekend storm looks less promising with each model run, but hopefully, we'll pick up 2-4" of new snow by Sunday. High pressure to return on Monday and lasting through at least mid-week.
To celebrate the first day of winter, a few lines from Mary Oliver's poem "Snowy Night"
Snow was falling,
so much like stars
filling the dark trees
that one could easily imagine
its reason for being was nothing more
than prettiness.
Recent Avalanches
No avalanches were reported from the backcountry, but control work at a resort in the Salt Lake mountains pried out an avalanche 1-4' deep failing in the persistent weak layer (PWL) down near the ground.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Normal caution is used as an avalanche problem when there is a Low danger and avalanches are unlikely. However, risk is inherent when traveling in avalanche terrain, and many experienced and savvy people are still paying attention to the poor snowpack structure of strong snow on top of weak snow that exists on upper-elevation aspects facing west, north, and east. Although triggering an avalanche on this buried persistent weak layer (PWL) is unlikely, it is not impossible.
Two other things to keep in mind today:
You may find small wind slabs that formed a few days ago are still reactive on upper elevation northerly aspects.
Due to warm temperatures overnight and into today, small wet/loose avalanches are possible in steep terrain at the low and mid elevations.
Additional Information
What happened to the Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) problem? The PWL problem first appeared in the December 1 forecast and was removed from the forecast on Wednesday, December 20. On Thursday, December 21, forecasters Nikki Champion and Greg Gagne talked about the PWL problem over a Zoom call and their 5-minute discussion is below.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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