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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion on
Wednesday morning, December 11, 2019
Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE on northerly facing upper elevation slopes where the persistent weak layer is at the ground. Recent warm weather has strengthened the snowpack, but triggering an avalanche on old weak snow near the ground remains possible.
Other upper elevation slopes have a MODERATE danger due to sustained winds, look for and avoid areas of wind drifted snow.
Low and mid-elevations have generally safe avalanche conditions and a LOW danger.
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Weather and Snow
Mountain temperatures this morning are in the mid-20s F at mid-elevations and low-20s F at upper elevations. Yesterday, westerly winds averaged 10-15 mph and gusting up to 30 mph at ridgelines.
Today a weak weather system will move through the Wasatch bringing warm temperatures in the mid to upper 20s F. Westerly winds will continue throughout the day averaging 10-15 mph and gusting up to 30 mph at ridgetops. This system could bring 2-4" of snow late this morning.
Beginning Thursday, a steady westerly & northwesterly flow with embedded disturbances will bring more snow and periods of increased winds through the weekend, which could favor the northern Wasatch. This weekend should have fairly cold temperatures.
Recent Avalanches
Some shallow soft slab avalanches were triggered by ski patrols yesterday.
On Saturday in the Bear River Range just north of the border into Idaho, two snowmobilers were caught and carried with one partial burial in an avalanche but ended up ok. INFO.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
At northerly upper elevations, above 9000', weak faceted snow does still exist at the ground. This layer of old faceted snow has been found near Snowbasin, Powder Mountain, on Ben Lomond and in the Monte Cristo area. We will continue to monitor this layer, moving into the weekend increased winds and snow will add stress to this layer of facets and could tip the scale enough to cause avalanches.
Below is a video from Doug Wewer on Ben Lomond Peak. The long term prospects are good that this layer may heal and go away.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Sunday's new snow was transported by northerly winds early Monday morning and by westerly winds yesterday into the morning. Yesterday on Cutler Ridge shallow wind slabs were reactive to shovel shear tests, and local ski patrols triggered a few shallow wind slabs. With continued westerly winds look for signs of wind drifted snow which looks rounded and smooth at upper elevations. Also, look for slopes that were scoured or eroded and consider where that snow was transported. The simple strategy is to look for and avoid these slabs of fresh wind drifted snow at mid and upper elevations.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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