Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Greg Gagne
Issued by Greg Gagne for
Monday, January 21, 2019
It is a day of INCREASING avalanche hazard, with the danger rising to HIGH on all aspects at the upper elevations, and CONSIDERABLE at the mid elevations as well as shady low elevation slopes. Pretty simple avalanche formula as forecasted moderate to strong northwest winds and heavy snowfall will create sensitive storm snow and wind drifts. Both human-triggered and natural avalanches are likely, especially during any period of high precipitation intensity. The hazard is MODERATE on low elevation slopes facing west, through south and southeast. Be sure to avoid avalanche runout zones.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Avalanche Warning
AN AVALANCHE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH, where strong winds and heavy snowfall will push to avalanche hazard to HIGH. Both human triggered and natural avalanches are likely. Avoid being on and underneath slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
Special Announcements
On Friday, a skier was killed in an avalanche near Electric Lake on the Manti/Skyline Plateau. Their body was recovered Saturday morning. You can read the updated report - including photos and video from the accident site - by clicking here. The UAC extends our deepest condolences to their family and friends.
Weather and Snow
Mountain temperatures are in the 20’s F and south/southwest winds are moderate to strong, gusting in the 30’s and 40’s mph at mid elevations, and 50’s mph at upper elevations.
A strong cold front is forecasted to enter the Wasatch this morning, with temperatures dropping throughout the day. Winds will switch to the northwest this morning, and persist through much of the day, gusting in the 30’s and 40’s mph at mid and upper elevations.
A cold, moist storm is on our doorstep, with snowfall expected to begin this morning, lasting through most of the daylight hours. We should see snowfall rates up 1”/hr, but periods of heavier snowfall can also be expected. A brief break is possible late afternoon, with snow showers picking up again this evening. Expected snowfall totals by Tuesday morning are 8-14", with highest totals favored by northwest flow.
Recent Avalanches
No backcountry avalanches were reported in the Ogden mountains from Sunday. A few recent avalanches have really caught my attention, including this slide at 7000' on Cutler Ridge that failed on a preserved layer of near-surface facets (observation).
You can find all observations - including recent avalanche activity - for the Ogden mountains by clicking here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Forecasted heavy snowfall will create sensitive storm snow today. Human-triggered avalanches are likely, as well as possible natural avalanches, especially during any period of high precipitation intensity. Pay attention to rapidly changing conditions, and watch for clues such as cracking or avalanching, even on smaller slopes. The rime crust that formed on Saturday - and is now buried by new storm snow - may be an especially reactive layer for avalanching.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong winds out of the south/southwest created some dense wind drifts at the upper elevations on Sunday, and today's northwest winds will have plenty of new, low-density snow to work with, creating fresh wind drifts on all aspects at the mid and upper elevations. Some of these drifts may be 18-24" thick in places. Also watch for sensitive cornices along upper elevation ridgelines, especially on aspects facing north through east. The rime crust that formed on Saturday - and is now buried by new storm snow - may be an especially reactive layer for avalanching.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
While the faceted weak layers in our snowpack continue to gain strength and adjust to the recent loading of storm and wind-driven snow, they still cannot be completed trusted. Several observations from the Ogden mountains have indicated preserved near-surface facets and surface hoar (such as the recent avalanche activity on Cutler Ridge), and these weaknesses may be reactive to this new load of storm snow. The rime crust that formed on Saturday complicates this picture, with a possible weak layer on top of the crust. Pay careful attention to being below steep slopes, especially in shady low-elevation terrain. Photo below is recent avalanche failing on layer of faceted snow on northeast aspect at 7000'
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.