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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Friday, January 18, 2019
THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH. Natural and human triggered avalanches are expected on many aspects and elevations, particularly in areas that have seen the most snow and wind. Those without excellent avalanche and route finding skills should avoid the backcountry through the Monday/MLK weekend.
While the backcountry will be dangerous over the next several days, enjoy the Greatest Snow on Earth at some of the Greatest Ski Resorts on Earth where they employ teams to help mitigate the risk. REMEMBER that if you're going out of bounds, you're entering into High avalanche danger.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Warning
AN AVALANCHE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH, TO INCLUDE THE BEAR RIVER RANGE, THE WESTERN UINTAS, AND THE ENTIRETY OF THE WASATCH RANGE. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL HAVE PUSHED THE AVALANCHE DANGER TO HIGH. NATURAL AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY. AVOID BEING ON OR BENEATH STEEP MOUNTAIN TERRAIN. AN ELEVATED AVALANCHE DANGER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MLK HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
Special Announcements
Listen to the first full length episode of the UAC Podcast. Breaking the Stigma with Traumatic Stress - Another Conversation with Dave Richards. Download it on iTunes, Stitcher or from the UAC Blog.
It's worth reading the avalanche accident report from near Silverton Colorado from Jan 5, 2018. Many interesting take home points. INFO
Check out the improved weather links, road conditions, and weather links for each forecast region on the new UAC IOS App. Do you use the NOAA point forecast? If so, now you can bookmark your favorite weather locations in "My Weather" in the App. INFO
Weather and Snow
Just like the old days. Rough storm totals are below. (Overnight/24 hour/storm totals for snow/snow-water-equivalent) It's still snowing, albeit lightly. Temps are in the 20s. Winds are from the northwest blowing 15-20mph with gusts to 30. Total snow stakes are 60-70" up high. Trailheads picked up 4" overnight and some low elevation areas have 50" of snow. Amazing. Snow travel was arduous yesterday as the new heavy dense snow came in on top of Wednesday's lower density powder.
7"/0.68"...14"/1.79"...27"/2.68"
Greg's Most Excellent Week in Review is hot off the presses. INFO
Recent Avalanches
Ski area control teams triggered many soft and hard wind slabs yesterday at the mid and upper elevations that were 1-3' deep with one large avalanche 6-10' deep. Examples of cracking and avalanching below..
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
24 hours of strong southwest to now moderate northwest winds have dangerous soft and hard drifts on many aspects at the mid and upper elevations. They're to the lee of ridgelines and cross-loaded into couloirs and gullies and may be triggered at a distance or break above you. Windslabs are often manageable but these are not. Too big, too stiff, too unpredictable.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The snowpack has many new and old generally strengthening weak layers from early season and during the Christmas/New Year's holiday season. These have been more prominent at the mid and low elevations. Surface hoar is a notoriously tricky weak layer and the Ogden mountains may have one or two distinct layers of this frost in protected, if localized terrain. They are problematic in that they can release on very low slope angles (even less than 30°) and are often triggered at a distance. Be aware that you may trigger these from below.
Heavy snow and wind will be a good test for these weaknesses, particularly in thinner snowpack areas of generally less than 3' in depth. Note that any new storm and wind slab avalanches may step down to these old instabilities, particularly on northwest to southeast facing slopes.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Snowfall rates yesterday and overnight were eye-opening with at-times "2-3"/hour" intensity. This, combined with the upside down nature of the density trends (even back to Wednesday's storm), leave us with unstable storm snow that will continue to be reactive to human weight on all aspects at the mid and upper elevations. These too are often viewed as "manageable" but are likely too much snow and too upside down for much margin of safety.
Additional Information
We lost the poet Mary Oliver yesterday. She was one of our greatest treasures.
Doesn't everything die at last, and too soon?
Tell me, what is it you plan to do
with your one wild and precious life?
General Announcements
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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