Forecast: Ogden Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Issued by Greg Gagne on
Monday morning, January 10, 2022

The avalanche danger is Moderate on mid and upper elevation aspects facing northwest to north and east where it is possible to trigger a large and dangerous avalanche that may break down 2-5' deep and up to hundreds of feet wide.

Although all other aspects have a Low danger, watch for small wet-loose avalanches in steep southerly-facing terrain.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Skies are clear and temperatures have warmed overnight and are in the 20's and low 30's F at mid and upper elevations. Temperatures are inverted, with some low elevation trailheads in the low teens. Winds at all elevations are light, less than 10 mph.

The 3-4" of new snow from overnight Friday remains soft on wind and sun-sheltered slopes, but yesterday's sunshine crusted steep southerly-facing slopes and there is some wind damage along exposed ridgelines.

Temperatures today will hover around the freezing level at the mid and upper elevations and winds will be southerly and light, less than 10 mph.

I hope you enjoy sunshine - you're going to see lots of it for awhile.

Recent Avalanches

Other than some small wet-loose avalanches on steep southerly faces, no backcountry avalanches were reported Sunday.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

There is a persistent weak layer (PWL) of old faceted snow near the ground with 2-5' of snow on top of it. This PWL exists on mid and upper elevation slopes facing northwest through north and east. It does not exist on west and south-facing slopes as any early season snow melted away and December snowfall landed on bare ground. This PWL has been fracturing and producing large, dangerous avalanches over the past few weeks, such as this slide on Saturday from avalanche control work along the Ogden Skyline.

The PWL is slowly gaining strength and adjusting to the dense, deep slab on top. Although it is unlikely a human could trigger an avalanche that fails in the PWL, it is possible you could trigger an avalanche in isolated areas such as steep, rocky terrain where the snowpack is thinner.

Yesterday, my very-experienced touring party looked down an untouched 34° northeast facing slope and decided the possibility of an avalanche with catastrophic consequences simply wasn't worth it. We moved to a similarly-untouched slope less than 30 degrees in steepness and rode perfect powder.

Additional Information

On Sunday, Trent walked you through the decision-making process of determining whether the PWL problem is Moderate or Considerable based upon the Avalanche Danger Scale (shown below). I encourage you to re-read that forecast as it provides some insight into the decision-making process of assigning a danger rating.

General Announcements

Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures