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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, April 7, 2021
Two nights with a solid refreeze and cool temps yesterday have eased the threat for wet avalanches. As the day heats up the danger for loose wet and wet slab avalanches will rise to MODERATE. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and punchy or sloppy unsupportable snow. Timing is everything. Work slopes according to their aspect and get off of and out from under steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy. With water moving through the snowpack, slopes do not have to be in the sun to be dangerous. Thin shallow rocky areas and terrain under cliffs should be avoided.
Though unlikely, it may still be possible to trigger an avalanche on very steep slopes above treeline that face NW-N-NE where stiff slabs overlying weak, faceted snow may still be found. Shallow snowpack areas with steep convexities and rocky, more radical terrain are where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche.
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High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road is melted down to the dirt up to the parking lot.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance is through grooming for the season.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 54" Wind NW 15-20 Temp 17F
Temps yesterday remained quite cool and overnight lows have dropped into the teens. Today look for sunny skies, light to moderate NW winds, and high temps near 40F. More of the same is on tap for the foreseeable future.
Overnight freezes and daytime high temps mean everything right now. Get current and past 24-hour readings from these real-time weather links.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals and temperatures at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
NWS Weather Forecast
Snowpack Discussion
Two nights with a solid refreeze and overall cool temps yesterday have helped to lock up the snowpack and we're moving into what looks to be an extended corn cycle. This morning we'll see a solid, supportable crust that will gradually soften with the sun. Work the aspects starting with SE around 10:00 and end up on W around noon. North aspects remain in transition. Once the crust becomes unsupportable and the snow starts to get sloppy, it's time to call it a day as the danger for loose wet, or even wet slab avalanches will start to develop.
Weak, sugary, faceted snow still exists near the ground, especially at higher elevations on NW-E aspects. Slopes with steep convexities and rocky, more radical terrain are where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche failing on this weak, faceted snow.
Recent Avalanches
Chris Benson spotted this wet slab avalanche from the air on Sunday evening. Wet slabs have also been observed in the Abajo Mountains.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Loose Wet Avalanches:
The danger for loose wet avalanches will rise today as the sun melts and softens the surface crust. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and "point release" sluffs that fan out and gather more snow as they travel down the slope. Timing is everything this time of year. Work slopes according to their aspect in relation to the sun and get off of steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy.
Wet Slabs:
Record temps and light to no overnight re-freezes a few days ago produced wet slab avalanches. This type of wet snow avalanche is harder to predict than loose wet it but can be invariably more dangerous. Wet slabs release when melt water saturates a layer in the snowpack and the over riding slab fails as a cohesive layer. Outward signs of this type of problem are not obvious but sloppy, wet, or punchy snow indicates that the pack is trending towards unstable. With water moving through the snowpack, slopes do not have to be in the sun to be dangerous. Thin shallow rocky areas and terrain under cliffs should be avoided.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak, sugary, faceted snow still exists near the ground, mostly above treeline on NW-N-NE aspects. Though unlikely, it may still be possible to trigger an avalanche on this weak layer in areas with thin snow cover and in rocky, extreme terrain.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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