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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, April 5, 2020
A MODERATE danger still exists for deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow primarily on slopes facing NW-N-E. It may also still be possible to trigger an isolated wind slab in these same areas. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes and likely trigger points such as steep convexities or shallow snowpack areas near rock outcroppings or sub ridges. With a strong sun this time of year, always be on the lookout for an increased danger for loose, wet avalanches on sun-exposed slopes. Signs of instability include pinwheels, rollerballs, and point release sluffs. Get off of and out from under steep slopes that become wet and sloppy.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Expect snow on the upper end with conditions turning muddy and sloppy as the day heats up. 4x4 recommended.
Grooming: Trails have not been groomed.
Spring Awareness Campaign - Help us save lives through avalanche forecasts and education. Consider making a donation before April 8th.

We are sad to share the news of two recent avalanche fatalities:
On Wednesday, Trace Carrillo died in an avalanche on Taylor Mountain near Teton Pass. Trace was formerly an intern with the UAC and more recently a wilderness ranger with the Forest Service. Article here. Preliminary report here.
On Friday, Rob Kincaid died in an avalanche just north of Palisades Reservoir near the ID/WY stateline. Rob was well known by many snowmobilers as an athlete for Arctic Cat and veteran of many snowmobile competitions. Article here. Preliminary report here.
More details should be available soon about these tragic events but initial reports are that both men were wearing avalanche transceivers that were not turned on.

January 5, 2019 - Read this collection of 6 stories and a podcast about that day with a low avalanche danger, 8 skier-triggered avalanches, four catch and carries, a partial and critical burial, and a trip to the emergency room.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 2" Base Depth in Gold Basin 65" Wind SW 15-20 Temp 30F
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Weather: Stop me if you've heard this before - overnight, southwesterly winds cranked in the 20-30 mph range with gusts into the 40's. They've backed off a bit this morning and are averaging 15-20 mph along ridge tops. Today look for mostly sunny skies with breezy and warm conditions. High temps will again reach the mid 40's. Mon-Wed looks dry and sunny with the next closed low off the Pacific coast moving into the area sometime Thursday.
Snowpack: In my travels on Friday, I found spring conditions with soft dry snow on shady, sheltered aspects, and corn-like snow developing on S-W facing slopes below about 11,000'. Upper elevation, north-facing terrain looks fat and wind loaded, and large cornices have developed along the ridge crests of the highest cirques.
After a long dry spell in February, March saw significant snowfall, generally accompanied by strong southerly winds. Accumulating and wind drifted snow piled up on top of loose, sugary, facets that developed in February. This combination produced both natural and human triggered avalanches from 1'-4' deep. This problem still exists on northerly aspects, especially in areas with a thinner, underlying snowpack. In deeper areas, the snowpack is gaining strength. Spatial variability is the key component here and you'll never know for sure unless you dig.
It's white and bright up there!
We're approaching traditional peak snowpack depth and we've managed to creep back up to just above average. The highest depth in Gold Basin this year was over the weekend with 74" on the stake.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Though the odds are decreasing, it is still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche failing on a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary facets that formed in February. Significant snowfall and strong winds have built slabs 2'-4' deep over top of this weak snow. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche involving this persistent weak layer on steep, wind loaded, north through easterly facing slopes right around treeline, or in shallower, rocky areas in the alpine. Avoid likely trigger points such as steep convexities or thinner snowpack areas around rock outcroppings.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Isolated, unstable wind slabs may still exist in the high country primarily on slopes facing NW-N-E. Most of these wind slabs have stabilized over the past several days, but their weight has put additional stress on buried, persistent weak layers. For this reason, it is still a good idea to avoid steep slopes that look fat or wind loaded.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With a strong sun this time of year, always be on the lookout for an increased danger for loose, wet avalanches on sun-exposed slopes. Signs of instability include pinwheels, rollerballs, and point release sluffs. Get off of and out from under steep slopes that become wet and sloppy.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.

New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
We've closed down the beacon park for the season. Thanks to volunteers Evan and Maureen Clapper for helping me with that!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.