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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, April 6, 2020
Though the chances are decreasing, a MODERATE danger still exists for deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow primarily on slopes facing NW-N-E. It may also still be possible to trigger an isolated wind slab in these same areas. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes and likely trigger points such as steep convexities or shallow snowpack areas near rock outcroppings or sub ridges. With marginal overnight refreezes and warm daytime temperatures, the danger for wet avalanches will increase. Signs of instability include pinwheels, rollerballs, and point release sluffs. Get off of and out from under steep slopes that become wet and sloppy.
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Expect snow on the upper end with conditions turning muddy and sloppy as the day heats up. 4x4 recommended.
Grooming: Trails have not been groomed.
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Uncertainty, Risk, & Decision Making: before, during, and after COVID-19 - Read this thought-provoking blog post about how we take risks by guest author Tom Diegel.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 2" Base Depth in Gold Basin 65" Wind S 20-30 G50 Temp 30F
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Weather: Southerly winds continue to crank in the 20-30 mph range with gusts as high as 50 along ridgetops. Today look for mostly sunny skies with breezy and warm conditions. High temps will again reach the mid 40's. Tue-Wed looks dry and sunny. A closed low off the Pacific coast will move into the area sometime Thursday bringing us our next chance for snow.
Snowpack: Spring conditions are in effect. I've observed corn-like snow developing on S-W facing slopes below about 11,000' but marginal refreezes will keep the window short and you'll want to stay off these slopes as they become wet and punchy. Some soft dry snow can still be found on shady, sheltered aspects. Upper elevation, north-facing terrain looks fat and wind loaded, and large cornices have developed along the ridge crests of the highest cirques.
After a long dry spell in February, March saw significant snowfall, generally accompanied by strong southerly winds. Accumulating and wind drifted snow piled up on top of loose, sugary, facets that developed in February. This combination produced both natural and human triggered avalanches from 1'-4' deep. This problem still exists on northerly aspects, especially in areas with a thinner, underlying snowpack. In deeper areas, the snowpack is gaining strength. Spatial variability is the key component here and you'll never know for sure unless you dig.
It's white and bright up there!
We're approaching traditional peak snowpack depth and we've managed to creep back up to just above average. The highest depth in Gold Basin this year was over the weekend with 74" on the stake.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Though the odds are decreasing, it is still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche failing on a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary facets that formed in February. Significant snowfall and strong winds have built slabs 2'-4' deep over top of this weak snow. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche involving this persistent weak layer on steep, wind loaded, north through easterly facing slopes right around treeline, or in shallower, rocky areas in the alpine. Avoid likely trigger points such as steep convexities or thinner snowpack areas around rock outcroppings.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Isolated, unstable wind slabs may still exist in the high country primarily on slopes facing NW-N-E. Most of these wind slabs have stabilized over the past several days, but their weight has put additional stress on buried, persistent weak layers. For this reason, it is still a good idea to avoid steep slopes that look fat or wind loaded.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Marginal refreezes over the past couple of nights at mid and lower elevations, and warm temps during the day are increasing the likelihood for wet avalanches. Signs of instability include pinwheels, rollerballs, and point release sluffs. Get off of and out from under steep slopes that are punchy and unsupportable or that become wet and sloppy.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.

New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
We've closed down the beacon park for the season. Thanks to volunteers Evan and Maureen Clapper for helping me with that!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.