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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, April 8, 2020
Though the chances are decreasing, a MODERATE danger still exists for deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow primarily on slopes facing NW-N-E. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes and likely trigger points such as steep convexities or shallow snowpack areas near rock outcroppings or sub ridges. With a strong sun and warm daytime temperatures, the danger for wet avalanches will increase. Signs of instability include pinwheels, rollerballs, and point release sluffs. Get off of and out from under steep slopes that become wet and sloppy.
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The road is mostly dry. Some mud and snow exists near the top end, especially in the parking lot.
Grooming: Grooming has been suspended for the season.
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Uncertainty, Risk, & Decision Making: before, during, and after COVID-19 - Read this thought-provoking blog post about how we take risks by guest author Tom Diegel.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 2" Base Depth in Gold Basin 63" Wind SW 5-15 Temp 24F
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Weather: Believe it or not, SW winds are mostly light and forecasted to stay that way. Skies are clear and we had a good solid freeze last night. Today will be a scorcher with sunny skies and high temps in the mid 50's. The cut off low we've been watching is looking drier and drier. It will spin into our region tomorrow bringing a slight chance for snow showers. Friday and Saturday look mostly sunny with another slight chance for showers on Sunday as a Pacific trough drops down from the north.
Snowpack: With last night's solid freeze and overall lack of wind, today will be good day for corn. the best conditions exist on S-W facing slopes below about 11,500'. Some soft dry snow can still be found on shady, sheltered aspects but it's getting harder to find. Upper elevation, north-facing terrain looks fat and wind loaded, and large cornices have developed along the ridge crests of the highest cirques.
I've been observing a strengthening snowpack with stability tests not producing results on the faceted weak layer from February. Spatial variability is still a key component however, and there are still many places where weak facets can be found beneath a slab that is 2'-4' thick. Avoid steep wind loaded slopes and shallow areas in the alpine or right around treeline. Likely trigger points include steep convexities and areas around rock outcroppings, sub ridges, or along slope margins. The more radical the terrain, the greater the likelihood for triggering an avalanche, and I'm still not feeling all that confident about steep, north-facing terrain.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Though the odds are decreasing, it is still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche failing on a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary facets that formed in February. Significant snowfall and strong winds have built slabs 2'-4' deep over top of this weak snow. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche involving this persistent weak layer on steep, wind loaded, north through easterly facing slopes right around treeline, or in shallower, rocky areas in the alpine. Avoid likely trigger points such as steep convexities or thinner snowpack areas around rock outcroppings.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Warm temps and strong sun during the day will increase the likelihood for wet avalanches. Signs of instability include pinwheels, rollerballs, and point release sluffs. Get off of and out from under steep slopes that are punchy and unsupportable or that become wet and sloppy.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.

New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
We've closed down the beacon park for the season. Thanks to volunteers Evan and Maureen Clapper for helping me with that!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.