Road Conditions: The road is mostly dry. Some mud and snow exists near the upper end.
Grooming: Grooming has been suspended for the season.
The Avalanche Research Program at Simon Fraser University is conducting an
online survey to examine how people use avalanche safety information. They want to hear from all backcountry users to understand how they process information provided in public avalanche forecasts. Anyone who completes the survey before May 15th will be entered to win cash prizes.
Uncertainty, Risk, & Decision Making: before, during, and after COVID-19 - Read this thought-provoking
blog post about how we take risks by guest author Tom Diegel.
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 63" Wind SW 10-20 Temp 37F
Weather: It did not freeze last night and conditions are very warm this morning. It's 37F in Gold Basin and 41F at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. ESE winds overnight averaged 15-20 mph with gusts to 30. They've swung around to the SW this morning where they'll continue to blow in the 15-20 mph range. Clouds will increase this morning as a low-pressure system churns through the 4 Corners region. We'll see a chance for isolated showers with periods of sunshine. High temps will be in the mid 40's. Fri and Sat look sunny and warm with the next system dropping out of the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Precipitation will favor the northern mountains while the big story for us will be crashing temperatures.
Snowpack: The lack of a freeze last night will not be conducive to corn snow conditions today. Not only will the snow be punchy and unsupportable, but it will also quickly become sloppy and wet with any sunshine. Maggie Nielsen was up yesterday and reported good corn snow on a SW aspect at around 10,500'. Look for a return to those conditions on Fri and Sat. She also detailed a complex snowpack with isolated collapsing in shallow snowpack areas at lower elevations.
Read her observation here.
I've been observing a strengthening snowpack on northerly aspects and stability tests not producing results on the faceted weak layer from February. Spatial variability is still a key component however, and there are still places where weak facets can be found beneath a slab that is 2'-4' thick. Avoid steep wind loaded slopes and shallow areas in the alpine or right around treeline. Likely trigger points include steep convexities and areas around rock outcroppings, sub ridges, or along slope margins. The more radical the terrain, the greater the likelihood for triggering an avalanche, and I'm still not feeling all that confident about steep, north-facing terrain.
