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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Tuesday morning, April 27, 2021
A storm system moving through today could leave a little shot of new snow in the mountains. Wind blowing the new snow into sensitive fresh drifts is something that you will want to keep an eye on. Fresh deposits of wind drifted snow near the upper ridges would be likely areas where you might find something that cracks out on you. This should be a manageable situation as long as you are aware of it. Use test slopes and ski cuts to get a handle on how sensitive any potential new fresh drifts are.
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Special Announcements
We're through issuing regular forecasts for the season but will update through the month with a general conditions report as significant weather conditions dictate. We will also continue to publish current observations. I would like to give a huge shout out to all who supported operations this season. This includes everyone who regularly used the forecast to stay safe; our local business sponsors Moab Gear Trader, Talking Mountain Yurts, and ROAM Industry; Black Diamond Equipment, Outdoor Research, Voile, and Arva for setting us up with the gear we need to do our job; the Manti-La Sal National Forest for their tremendous support of this program; and last but not least, our great local community and crew of dedicated observers who provide vital information and assistance throughout the season. Thanks everyone, see you next winter!
Weather and Snow
Get real-time weather data from these links:
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals and temperatures at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
NWS Weather Forecast
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Spring Time Avalanche Concerns
Loose Wet Avalanches are the most common springtime avalanche hazard as a strong sun and warm temps melt and soften the snow surface. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and "point release" sluffs that fan out and gather more snow as they travel down the slope. Timing is everything this time of year. Work slopes according to their aspect in relation to the sun and get off of steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy.
Wet slabs release when melt water saturates a layer in the snowpack and the over riding slab fails as a cohesive layer. These avalanches are harder to predict than loose wet, and outward signs of this problem are not obvious, but sloppy, wet, or punchy snow indicate that the pack is trending towards unstable. Successive nights without a freeze and warm daytime temps contribute to instability. Avoid thin shallow rocky areas and terrain under cliffs, especially if the snow is becoming wet and sloppy.
New Snow can cause the avalanche danger to rise just like in the winter. Poorly bonded new snow can cause problems on all aspects when there is more than about 6" of new snow. Loose snow sluffs and soft slab avalanches are possible. This type of instability typically settles out in a day or two.
Wind Drifted Snow can create unstable drifts or slabs on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Recent wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Unstable wind drifts can linger for days or even up to a week.
Persistent Weak Layers can occasionally linger well into spring and deep and dangerous avalanches remain possible. Weak, faceted snow tends to hang around on northerly aspects and in shallower snowpack areas around cliffs and rock outcroppings. Avoiding likely trigger points such as thin slope margins or steep convexities are ways to minimize your risk for this low probability but high consequence hazard.
Additional Information
It's a wrap! See you next winter!
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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