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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, March 30, 2020
Southerly winds yesterday continued to blow and drift Friday's 10"12" of low-density snow around and today there remains a MODERATE danger for human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow. Look for fresh wind drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features primarily on upper elevation, northerly facing terrain. Northerly aspects also still harbor a MODERATE danger for deeper and more dangerous avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes and likely trigger points such as steep convexities or shallow snowpack areas near rock outcroppings. And finally, when the sun makes its appearance today, the danger will rise for loose, wet avalanches on sun-exposed slopes. Look for signs of instability such as pinwheels and point release sluffs, and get off of and out from under steep slopes that become wet and sloppy.
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Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The road has not been plowed. Expect a few inches of new snow in the road with up to 6" at the parking lot.
Grooming: Trails have not been groomed.
If you rely on the UAC forecasts each day you get out, consider making a donation during our Spring Awareness Campaign to help us continue providing the avalanche forecasts and education you rely on.
The UAC encourages everyone to follow direction from federal, state, city and county officicals. The following is from Joe Dougherty, spokesman for the Utah Division of Emergency Management:
Though outdoor recreation is still permitted under the governor’s Stay Safe/Stay Home directive, we recommend that people maintain a distance of at least 6 feet.
Be extra cautious to avoid injuries outdoors. We are working with our hospital systems to conserve as much personal protective equipment as possible in case of hospitalizations.
Most outdoor injuries can be prevented. Know the conditions and know your limits so you don’t end up in a hospital.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 12" Base Depth in Gold Basin 70" Wind NW 5-15 Temp 22F
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Weather: The passing storm failed to produce any new snow. Today we'll see clouds with a chance of lingering showers this morning with clearing skies later in the day. NW winds will be mostly light and high temps will be in the low 30's. Tues and Wed look dry and mostly sunny. Wednesday will see an uptick in southerly winds ahead of the next Pacific trough that will move into the region. Most of the energy looks like it will be to the north. Long-range models show continued unsettled weather.
Snowpack: Southerly winds yesterday continued to blow and drift the 10"-12" of low density snow that fell on Friday. March has brought a significant amount of snow with up to 3' falling since the 18th. All of this snow has piled up on a snowpack that in many areas is comprised largely of weak, sugary, faceted snow. Weak snow can be found on all aspects but the weakest snow exists on northerly facing slopes right around treeline and below. Alpine areas generally have a deeper and stronger snowpack, especially out in the middle of concave bowls. However, slope margins, wind-swept areas, and areas right around rocks, cliffs, or sub-ridges have a much thinner snowpack. Weak, faceted snow exists in these areas. The recent spate of natural and human triggered avalanches in the alpine have included areas of wind drifted snow that have propagated into areas with weak, faceted snow.
This video was made last week but if you haven't been following it still summarizes what's been happening up there this month.
Recent Avalanches
No avalanche activity has been reported since last weekend.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Southerly winds yesterday continued to blow and drift Friday's 10"12" of low density snow around. Be in the lookout for fresh drifts on upper elevation, northerly aspect. In these same areas, new wind drifts have piled up on top of old, and a triggered wind slab has the potential to step down into a buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper and much more dangerous avalanche.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Up to 3' of snow has fallen in the La Sals since March 18, much of it accompanied by strong southerly winds. This load has fallen on top of a persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow that formed in February. Though no avalanches have been reported in more than a week, deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches 2'-4' deep remain possible. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche involving this persistent weak layer on steep, wind loaded, north through easterly facing slopes right around treeline, or in shallower, rocky areas in the alpine. Avoid likely trigger points such as steep convexities or thinner snowpack areas around rock outcroppings.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
When the sun makes its appearance today, be on the lookout for loose, wet avalanches. The most recent dry, low-density snow will be at its most vulnerable when it heats up for the first time. Signs of instability include rollerballs and pinwheels, and actual loose sluffs or point releases. If you observe any of these signs, or of the snow starts to feel wet and sloppy, it's time to get off of and out from under steep, sun- exposed slopes.
Additional Information
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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