Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Thursday, March 28, 2019
The avalanche danger is generally LOW this morning but will rise to MODERATE for wet snow avalanches on sun exposed slopes. The danger will develop first on east facing slopes followed by south, and then west. Low elevation, northerly aspects are also susceptible. Roller balls, pinwheels, and loose snow sluffs are signs of instability. Work with the sun, and get off of steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy. If you are moving into higher, northerly facing terrain in search of dry snow, maintain your avalanche awareness. Be alert to areas of wind drifted snow, as well as the possibility for triggering an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer, particularly in areas with rocky, more radical, or extreme terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We need your help. In an effort to increase awareness and prevent future fatalities we need to reach more people with our daily avalanche forecasts, expand the Know Before You Go program, and increase the number of on-snow avalanche courses. Please consider a donation to the UAC to help us raise $25,000 by April 8. Show your support of the UAC by making a donation at https://utahavalanchecenter.org/donate
A big shout out to the sledders in San Juan County who completed a Motorized Backcountry 101 Course this weekend! And a huge thanks to Al and Eston from Backcountry Institute for putting on the course!
Weather and Snow
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snotel totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Winds at 11,000 feet on Abajo Peak (11,330') about 45 miles south.
National Weather Service point forecast.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported. For a list of avalanches this season go here.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The danger for wet snow avalanches will rise on sun exposed slopes as temperatures soar into the mid 40's. The danger will develop first in east facing slopes followed by south, and then west. Low elevation, northerly aspects are also susceptible. Roller balls, pinwheels, and loose snow sluffs are signs of instability. Work with the sun, and get off of steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy.
Avalanche Problem #2
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Backcountry travel in snow covered mountains should always be done with an awareness for avalanche potential, and LOW danger doesn't mean NO danger. Continue to practice safe travel techniques by only putting one person on a slope at a time. And as you move into higher, north facing terrain in search of dry snow, continue to keep these avalanche problems in mind:
Wind Drifted Snow: Always be on the lookout for areas of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. They are often recognizable as smooth, rounded pillows, or they may feel and sound hollow like a drum. Old, hard wind slabs will be harder to trigger, but they will also have higher consequences. Even a small wind slab release could be devastating if it swept you over a cliff. Choose terrain wisely and with regard for consequences.
Persistent Weak Layer: Persistent weak layers have plagued our snowpack for most of the season causing frequent natural activity. A major cycle on March 13, produced very large avalanches breaking to the ground. Triggering this type of avalanche has now become unlikely, but layers of weak, faceted snow still exist deep in the snowpack on shady aspects. If you move into steeper, more radical terrain, be mindful of potential trigger points such as shallower areas along slab margins, or in rocky or sparsely treed areas.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.