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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Friday, March 25, 2022
Heads up, a dramatic warming event is on tap for the next few days creating the potential for increasingly reactive avalanche conditions!
A MODERATE danger remains for human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer on slopes steeper than 30 degrees that face NW-N-NE-E. Avalanches failing on this layer will be 2'-3' deep, and warming temperatures over the next few days may increase the likelihood. Continue to temper your ambitions for steep, northerly facing terrain.
With a strong sun and warming temperatures we'll see a MODERATE danger for loose, wet avalanches on sun exposed slopes. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. Get in and out early, and stay off of, and out from under steep slopes when they start to get wet and sloppy.
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Road Conditions: The road is a mix of dirt, mud, and patches of packed snow. It gets sloppier as the days warm up. All wheel drive and good tires are recommended.
Grooming: Trails have not been groomed.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. weather data:
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth at Gold Basin 58" Wind NW 10-15 Temp 27F
Skies are clear and temps overnight dropped into the mid 20's at 10,000' giving us a good solid refreeze. Sunny skies and high temps near 50 degrees are in store for today so get going early and get out early. Saturday and Sunday will be even warmer though we should start to see some clouds on Sunday ahead of a strong low pressure system forecasted to make landfall on Monday. There's still come uncertainty about how this system will progress but now it's looking like a decent shot of snow on Tuesday.
Snowpack
Under the current heat wave, we'll need to pay close attention to the snowpack to see how it reacts. In addition to the usual concerns for loose, wet instability on sun exposed slopes, this dramatic warming could make human triggered avalanches, 2'-3' deep more likely on northerly aspects where we still have a buried persistent weak layer of dry, sugary, faceted snow. Over the long run, the upcoming warm temperatures should help to strengthen this weak layer, but in the short term, this transition could make things more volatile and to be honest, I'm not sure how it's going to react. I do know that snow, like people, doesn't like rapid change, and it has the tendency to react poorly. I'll be heading up today to try and get a better feel for things, but I'd continue to keep it dialed back on northerly aspects this weekend. Harvest corn on south facing slopes and get in and out of the mountains early.
Chris Benson was out and about on Wednesday and sent in this observation.
Snow and Weather Links
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanches have been reported in the La Sal range.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of dry, sugary faceted snow exists on NW-N-NE-E aspects beneath a slab that is 2'-3' thick. The weakest snow exists on northerly aspects right around treeline and below. Above treeline, weak layer distribution is more variable but the problem has been compounded by recent wind drifted snow. Stability tests this week have shown that avalanches were becoming harder to trigger on this weak layer, but that could change with these dramatically warm temperatures. The concern is that melt water will percolate down to these weak, sugary facets, increasing the likelihood for human, or even natural avalanches. In the long run, these warm temperatures will help to consolidate and strengthen the snowpack, but in the short term we are in a tenuous, transitional state.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With a strong sun and dramatically warm temperatures over the next few days we'll need to be alert to signs of wet instability on all sun exposed slopes. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. With good re-freezes overnight, you should be able to find supportable surfaces and corn snow on SE-SW aspects, but it's that time of year when you need to get in and get out early. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes when they start to get wet, sloppy, and unsupportable.
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Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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