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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Monday, March 25, 2019
The avalanche danger will rise to MODERATE today for wet snow avalanches on sun exposed slopes. The danger will develop first on east facing slopes followed by south, and then west. Low elevation, northerly aspects are also susceptible. Roller balls, pinwheels, and loose snow sluffs are signs of instability. Work with the sun, and get off of steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy. There also remains an isolated, or MODERATE danger for triggering a deep avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer. Though triggering this type of avalanche has grown increasingly unlikely, the consequences have not, and this type of avalanche is un-survivable. The problem is most acute on steep slopes facing NW-N-E right around treeline and above.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
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A big shout out to the sledders in San Juan County who completed a Motorized Backcountry 101 Course this weekend! And a huge thanks to Al and Eston from Backcountry Institute for putting on the course!
Weather and Snow
Skies are clear, SW winds are mostly light, and the temperature in Gold Basin is 12 degrees. The mountains picked up another 2"-3" yesterday, bringing the total since Thursday night up to 18". I did not receive any reports from the backcountry yesterday, but I expect that you will still be able to find good, settled powder with a fresh coat of new on sheltered northerly aspects at mid and upper elevations. Clouds were in and out most of the day yesterday, and sun exposed slopes will either have a crust under the new snow, or be crusted over entirely. Expect things to soften fairly quickly today as temperatures soar into the low 40's. SW winds will remain mostly light, shifting to NW by this afternoon. Dry and warm conditions will prevail through Thursday when a weak system is forecasted to affect the region.
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snotel totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Winds at 11,000 feet on Abajo Peak (11,330') about 45 miles south.
National Weather Service point forecast.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported. For a list of avalanches this season go here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The danger for wet snow avalanches will rise on sun exposed slopes as temperatures soar into the low 40's. The danger will develop first in east facing slopes followed by south, and then west. Low elevation, northerly aspects are also susceptible. Roller balls, pinwheels, and loose snow sluffs are signs of instability. Work with the sun, and get off of steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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