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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, March 15, 2025
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-NE-E. Human triggered avalanches involving fresh slabs of wind drifted snow are likely. Increasing northwest winds today may begin to deposit snow on to southerly aspects. Avoid all steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep slopes that face W-N-E where human triggered avalanches 2-4 feet deep failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible. The danger is most pronounced on steep northerly aspects near treeline. Any avalanche failing on a weak faceted layer will be deep, dangerous, and potentially unsurvivable.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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They will not be working on the Loop Road today and the road is open.
Geyser Pass Road: The road has not been plowed but many vehicles made it up yesterday. The lower half has already mostly melted out, but deep ruts with packed snow underneath exist on the upper end. 4x4 required.
Grooming Conditions: Brian Murdock and I packed and rolled out the trail into Gold Basin yesterday.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 4" 72 Hour Snow: 10" Season Total Snow: 107" Depth at Gold Basin: 52"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: N/A Temp: 16° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 91%
Weather
Pre Laurel Peak wind station and the Gold Basin storm stake are down as we install upgrades including a web cam to the site.
Under westerly flow we'll see mostly cloudy skies and a chance for snow today. Westerly winds have been been light to moderate for the past 24 hours but they'll be on the increase today as they shift to the northwest. By afternoon, they'll average 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 30 along ridge tops. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 20's. Blustery conditions continue overnight. Sunday looks sunny, warm, and breezy with winds swinging around to the southwest. Clouds begin to move in Sunday night with increasing southerly winds through Monday before the next storm system arrives on Tuesday.
General Conditions
An additional 4 inches of snow fell yesterday morning bringing storm totals up to around 10 inches with a foot or more up high. The recent snow came in dense and then lightened up and we found excellent turning and riding yesterday. We observed numerous loose snow avalanches, and heavily wind drifted slopes on northerly aspects as well as a few natural wind slab releases. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes facing the north side of the compass today. On slopes facing W-N-E, persistent weak layers of faceted snow remain fairly widespread with a dense, hard slab 2-3 feet thick resting on top. Snowfall last week put pressure on these buried weak layers producing several large avalanches. The recent snow has not tipped the scales for a natural cycle this time around, but deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches remain possible. The bullseye zone for this problem is on steep, northerly aspects near treeline. With the addition of fresh wind slabs, steep slopes facing the north half of the compass should be avoided.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
In our travels yesterday, we observed this natural wind slab avalanche in Talking Mountain Cirque.
See the complete avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Recently formed wind slabs from yesterday's storm present the most immediate threat today. They are the most widespread on northerly aspects near and above treeline which is also where you are also most likely to encounter a persistent weak layer problem. Steep, wind drifted slopes in these areas should be avoided. With increasing winds shifting to the northwest, we'll likely see continued crossloading of north and easterly aspects as well fresh drifts forming on the south side of the compass. Look for fresh drifts forming on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Fresh drifts are often recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.
The NE face of Tukno is heavily wind drifted as are most slopes near and above treeline facing the north half of the compass.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Typically, by this time of year, we are getting close to putting our PWL problem in our rear view mirror. Unfortunately, we have a particularly weak and shallow snowpack this season brought on by few storms and long dry spells. Prior to the Valentine's Day storm, pretty much the entire snowpack was loose, weak, and faceted on slopes facing W-N-E. The Valentines Day storm built a thick, dense slab on top of this weak structure creating one of the worst snowpacks I've ever seen. This storm produced a few natural avalanches but not a widespread cycle and things were left hanging in the balance. The storm last week added a little more weight producing a few more avalanches including one very large, full depth release in Horse Creek. And here we are again. The underlying structure remains very poor and we've added a little more weight. The bullseye area for this problem is on steep, northerly aspects near treeline, and the likelihood decreases the further you step outside of this area. Personally, however, I'm going to continue to avoid any slope steeper than 30 degrees where this structure exists.
Additional Information
Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Brett "Kowboy" Kobernick where he discusses faceted persistent weak layers and how "nobody is immune from getting killed in an avalanche."
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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