Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
Overall, the avalanche danger is MODERATE, and human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow, and buried, persistent weak layers, are possible. The greatest likelihood for triggering an avalanche exists on steep, wind drifted, slopes, right around treeline and above, that face NW-NE-E. The greatest danger for avalanches involving buried persistent weak layers also exists on steep, northerly facing terrain, especially on rocky, radical, or sparsely treed slopes where the snowpack is shallow and weak. Slide paths that have already run, and then filled back in are also suspect. MODERATE danger does not imply little, or no danger, but rather that the problems are less widespread. It's important to remember that dangerous, human triggered avalanches remain a very real threat. And finally, as the day heats up, be alert to signs of wet snow instability on sun exposed slopes such as roller balls or pin wheels, and stay off of slopes that are getting wet and sloppy.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Weather and Snow
Southerly winds have been on the increase the past couple of days averaging 20 mph with gusting into the 30's. Today we'll see mostly sunny skies with maybe a few high clouds associated with a storm system to the north. SW winds will continue to blow in the 20-30 mph range along ridge tops, and daytime highs will be in the mid 20's. Clouds will being to develop by tomorrow as more stormy weather moves through to the north. By late in the week, some of this moisture should drop south and bring us another shot of snow with an active pattern setting up into next week.
Last week's storm cycle brought up to 2' of light, fluffy powder to the mountains, and conditions remain excellent on wind sheltered, northerly aspects. A strong, late February sun has crusted over south facing slopes, and some of the more exposed northerly aspects have sustained a little wind damage. The most recent reports I have from the backcountry come from Chris Benson and Dave Garcia who were out on Sunday.
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snotel totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600') y
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Snow totals from the Thu-Fri storm. Also, it looks like we're going to need an extension on top of our total depth stake! Base depth is 82"! Seasonal average to date is 125%.
Recent Avalanches
We got a good look around in Gold Basin on Saturday and noted several large natural avalanches that had run during the storm. These slides were 3'-5' deep and appeared to be failing on a buried persistent weak layer. I also heard a report of natural activiy in Dory Canyon.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As has been the case for several weeks now, wind drifted snow continues to be our primary concern. We may see a few shallow drifts for the recent southerly winds, but deep drifts from the last storm event will pack more of a punch. These drifts have formed on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features on slopes facing NW-N-E, primarily in upper elevation terrain, though some exposed mid elevation slopes are also susceptible. Most of these drifts have gained strength, but human triggered avalanches up to 3' deep are still possible. A triggered wind drift also has the potential to step down into a buried, persistent weak layer causing a deeper, and even more dangerous avalanche. Continue to be wary if steep, wind drifted slopes recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Natural avalanche activity from the last storm cycle, as well as a remotely triggered avalanche last week, demonstrate that a dangerous persistent weak layer problem still exists. The problem is becoming less widespread, but that perhaps makes it more insidious. Areas with a shallower snowpack are the most suspect and this includes slopes that have already avalanched, or that have been previously wind scoured. Steep, rocky slopes facing N-NE-E have been the most active, but weak snow and poor test results are still being encountered on SE facing slopes. Careful snow stability analysis is essential, and the bottom line is that local observers and I are going to continue to avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees, especially those with a northerly aspect.
Additional Information
Check out this clip of local Moab sledders playing it safe and making sure their beacons are on at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.