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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Thursday, February 23, 2023
Very strong winds and significant snowfall have created dangerous avalanche conditions in the backcountry.
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-NE-E. In these areas, recent and wind drifted snow have added stress to a buried persistent weak layer and human triggered avalanches are likely.
A MODERATE danger exists on all other aspects and elevations where human triggered avalanches involving slabs of recent and wind drifted snow are possible.
Look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface, and avoid wind drifted slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: Plow crews are headed up this morning but will do residential areas first. If they get to Geyser it will be this afternoon.
Grooming: All trails are covered in fresh snow today.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 10" 72 Hour Snow 13" Season Total Snow 211" Base Depth at Gold Basin 78"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak S 10-20 Temp 5 F
Weather
The storm has moved on and southerly winds have backed off into the 10-20 mph range. The next closed low system is currently dropping down the west coast. A series of shortwaves ahead of this system will bring periods of snow to the mountains through Friday and we could see another 4"-8". Look for snow showers to develop mid day along with increasing SW winds. We'll see a break on Saturday before the closed low moves through AZ on Sunday bringing another chance for snow. Unsettled weather and the promise for more snow continues next week.
General Conditions
The storm produced 13" of snow accompanied by very strong, southerly winds gusting to 70 mph. I don't have any reports from the backcountry yesterday but I think it's safe to say that the recent snow will be heavily drifted and wind affected in open areas, and that you'll want to seek out sheltered, low angle terrain today. All steep, wind drifted slopes should be considered dangerous until proven otherwise, especially slopes with a northerly component to their aspect. In these areas, fresh drifts have added stress to a variably distributed, persistent weak layer increasing the likelihood for deeper and more dangerous avalanches.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported. See the La Sal Avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches involving recent and wind drifted snow will be possible on all aspects today. I've lumped the two problems together as I think it will be hard to find unstable snow that hasn't been wind affected to some extent but storm slab avalanches may also be possible. The deepest and most dangerous drifts will be found on leeward slopes that face NW-N-NE-E-SE. In some cases these deeper drifts will form on top of weak snow that exists on northerly facing slopes. On these slopes any triggered wind drift can step down to the buried weak layer and cause a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.
Backcountry travelers should avoid any wind drifted slopes that appear fat, pillowy, round, and smooth.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow formed on the surface of northerly facing slopes during a dry period earlier this month. It was subsequently buried by a foot of snow from the Valentine's Day storm. The distribution of this weak layer is somewhat spotty - meaning we are finding it on some slopes, and not on others. The only way to know where it exists for sure is to get out your shovel and dig. We have a fair amount of uncertainty as to how this weak layer will react to the new load, and how widespread the problem is. For now, all steep, north facing terrain should be considered dangerous with human triggered avalanches likely.
Additional Information
Are you wondering how cell phones and other electronic devices can interfere with your avalanche transceiver? The "20/50 Rule" is that you want your beacon 20cm (8") away from other electronics while transmitting and 50cm (20") away from electronics while searching. Get the full scoop here.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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