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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, February 17, 2022
New snow amounts have not affected the avalanche conditions much and the danger remains LOW on all aspects and elevations. Unstable areas of wind drifted snow may exist on isolated terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain.
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Special Announcements
The Backountry 101 course has been cancelled.
Road Conditions: The road to Geyser Pass Trailhead is mostly down to the dirt. Some patchy areas of packed snow and ice remain and they are slick. AWD and good tires are recommended.
Grooming: A couple inches of new snow will grace the trails this morning. Follow LUNA (Lower Utah Nordic Alliance) on Instagram @luna_moab
Members of the Grand County Winter Rescue Team turned out for ropes and toboggan training at the Geyser Pass Trailhead on Saturday. This solid crew is a great asset to our winter backcountry community. Thanks team!
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. weather data:
24 Hour Snow 2" 72 Hour Snow 2" Base Depth at Gold Basin 41" Wind NW 15-25 Temp 11F
2" of new snow is better than none, the trouble may be finding it, especially above treeline where northerly winds blew in the 25-35 mph range with gusts to 50 for about five hours between 10:00 p.m. and 3:00 a.m. They've backed off a bit but will continue to blow in the 15-25 mph range along ridge tops with gusts to 35. Skies will be sunny and high temps will be in the low to mid 20's. High pressure returns for the weekend with an another storm brewing for early next week.
NWS Weather Forecast for the La Sal Mountains
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snowpack
2" of low density snow accompanied by wind won't improve conditions a whole lot but at least it's something. Low angle, wind sheltered terrain will be your best bet for taking advantage of the dusting. From an avalanche perspective, we may see a few, fresh, shallow wind slabs out there, particularly in higher, more exposed terrain, but in general our attention remains focused on the loose, sugary, faceted snow that has formed near the surface during this extended period of high pressure. These near surface facets will become the next weak layer in the snowpack and they are starting to get covered up.
Currently, the weakest snow can be found on steep, shady, northerly aspects right around treeline and below. In some of these areas, the entire snowpack has become loose and faceted. Above treeline, conditions are much more variable ranging from from wind scoured and sun crusted, to boiler plate. Where crusts are thin, the snow is faceting underneath. This makes mapping of this future weak layer tricky. Generally speaking, the more sheltered the area, the more likely the the surface is to be weak and faceted. When new snow finally comes, slope by slope analysis will be required when getting into steep terrain.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
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Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Though the avalanche danger is low and generally stable conditions exist, here are some things to keep in mind:
  • Isolated, unstable areas of wind drifted snow may exist on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as sub-ridges and rock outcroppings above treeline. Shallow wind slabs shouldn't pose much of a threat but one could sweep you of your feet and carry you over a cliff, especially if you are stomping around in higher, more extreme terrain. Be wary of smooth rounded deposits, or areas where the snow feels or sounds hollow underneath.
  • As the snow surface continues to weaken we'll start to see loose snow sluffs in steep terrain. These small slides generally won't pose much of a threat but they could sweep you off your feet and carry you over a cliff so be mindful of your exposure.
  • Areas of very firm snow exist where a fall could produce a dangerous, slide for life. Be mindful of your exposure on steep slopes with firm snow, and consider carrying a tool for self arrest in the high country.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.