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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, February 16, 2022
New snow amounts will not affect avalanche conditions and the danger remains LOW on all aspects and elevations.
Hard snow conditions exist and dangerous "slides for life" are possible. Be mindful of your exposure on steep slopes with firm snow, and consider carrying a tool for self arrest in the high country.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
We will be holding a Backcountry 101 course Feb 18, 19. It's a great introduction to understanding avalanche hazard and how to travel through the mountains safely. Go here for details and to register. And a huge thanks to our friends at Moab Gear Trader for their sponsorship of this course!
Road Conditions: The road to Geyser Pass Trailhead is mostly down to the dirt. Some patchy areas of packed snow and ice remain and they are slick. AWD and good tires are recommended.
Grooming: Trails have not been groomed in awhile but the surface remains hard packed and relatively smooth. Follow LUNA (Lower Utah Nordic Alliance) on Instagram @luna_moab
Members of the Grand County Winter Rescue Team turned out for ropes and toboggan training at the Geyser Pass Trailhead on Saturday. This solid crew is a great asset to our winter backcountry community. Thanks team!
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. weather data:
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth at Gold Basin 39" Wind SW 10-15 Temp 19F
A trough and associated cold front will move through the area today bringing a chance for light snowfall to the mountains. Mostly light SW winds will shift to NW by this afternoon after the front passes through. A chance for snow showers will linger into tonight followed by clearing skies and blustery NW winds on Thursday as dry northwesterly flow and a ridge of high-pressure rebuilds to the west. The next hope for snow and a change in the pattern comes early next week.
NWS Weather Forecast for the La Sal Mountains
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snowpack
Light snowfall amounts will not affect the avalanche danger, nor are they likely to improve conditions much but it will be good to see the sun go away! From an avalanche perspective, our attention remains focused on the existing snow surface and the development of loose, sugary, faceted snow. Near surface facets can become the next weak layer in the snowpack when new snow lands on top. This weak, sugary, non-cohesive layer can also produce dry loose snow avalanches.
Currently, the weakest snow can be found on steep, shady, northerly aspects right around treeline and below. In some areas such as this, the entire snowpack has become loose and faceted. Above treeline, conditions are much more variable ranging from from wind scoured and sun crusted, to boiler plate. Where crusts are thin, the snow is faceting underneath. This makes mapping of this future weak layer tricky. Generally speaking, the more sheltered the area, the more likely the the surface is to be weak and faceted. When new snow finally comes, slope by slope analysis will be required when getting into steep terrain.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
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Likelihood
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Description
Though the avalanche danger is low and generally stable conditions exist, here are some things to keep in mind:
  • Isolated, unstable areas of wind drifted snow may exist on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as sub-ridges and rock outcroppings above treeline. Shallow wind slabs shouldn't pose much of a threat but one could sweep you of your feet and carry you over a cliff, especially if you are stomping around in higher, more extreme terrain. Be wary of smooth rounded deposits, or areas where the snow feels or sounds hollow underneath.
  • As the snow surface continues to weaken we'll start to see loose snow sluffs in steep terrain. These small slides generally won't pose much of a threat but they could sweep you off your feet and carry you over a cliff so be mindful of your exposure.
  • Areas of very firm snow exist where a fall could produce a dangerous, slide for life. Be mindful of your exposure on steep slopes with firm snow, and consider carrying a tool for self arrest in the high country.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.