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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Tuesday morning, February 11, 2025
The overall danger is LOW and human-triggered avalanches are unlikely. Small avalanches remain possible in isolated areas or extreme terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
We are deeply saddened to report an avalanche fatality in East Bowl of Silverfork in the Salt Lake Area Mountains on Saturday. We will provide a full accident report in the coming days.
Check out the latest edition of the UAC podcast with Moab forecaster Dave Garcia where he talks about the challenges of forecasting for our remote and isolated range with limited information.
Geyser Pass Road: Surface is mainly snowpacked and icy above and bare dirt down low. AWD with good tires recommended.
Grooming Conditions: Eric groomed all trails on Sunday.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 63" Depth at Gold Basin: 26"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SW 20 G 32 Temp: 21° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 68%
Weather
It is 21° F in Gold Basin this morning. SW winds remain elevated and blow 15-20 MPH today with gusts up to 30 MPH. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day. Expect mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures around 25° F, and light snow showers after 5 PM. We should pick up 1-3" of snow overnight. A quick transitory ridge of high pressure builds on Thursday, but doesn't last long, as a potent area of low pressure moves in from California and Oregon. Snow will develop Thursday night with heavy snow expected on Friday. Stay tuned for more details.
General Conditions
Almost a week of strong southerly winds and warm temperatures have really taken a toll on what was already a meager snowpack. The snow surface is highly variable with many south facing slopes melted off. Shady slopes below treeline lack structure and consist entirely of weak, faceted snow. Above treeline, winds have scoured and hardened the snow surface, and a variety of textures exist. Human triggered avalanches are unlikely. If Friday's storm delivers, conditions will become dangerous and we will need to start thinking about avalanches again.
Warm temps, sunshine, and sustained winds have taken a toll on upper-elevation terrain.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
See the avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Low danger doesn't mean no danger, and here are a few things to keep in mind as you travel through the backcountry.
  • Persistent Weak Layer - Our snowpack is generally weak and faceted in many areas. This is different than your typical late-season low danger. If you are getting into big lines and steep terrain, it is always wise to evaluate the snowpack first. Look for slabs over weak layers. Reduce your risk by avoiding likely trigger points like shallow rocky areas, steep convexities, and thin slab margins.
  • Wind Drifted Snow - The La Sals are a high, islolated, wind swept mountain range and snow is often transported and then deposited as slabs of wind drifted snow. The current threat is isolated to specific terrain features and avalanches will be small, but they could sweep you off your feet and carry you over a cliff in the wrong location. Remain cautious of smooth, rounded, hollow feeling, areas, especially when in consequential terrain.
  • Loose Dry Avalanches - Below treeline on northerly aspects, the snowpack is entirely loose and faceted. You can trigger small dry-loose avalanches in very steep terrain. These slides would not be large enough to bury you, but they could sweep you off your feet and carry you into a tree or over a cliff.
Additional Information
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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