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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, February 11, 2021
The avalanche danger is MODERATE though you can still trigger deep and dangerous avalanches on steep slopes facing NW-N-SE. Above treeline, wind-loading over the past week has added additional stress to buried, persistent weak layers. As a result, the danger increases with elevation, as does the likelihood of triggering an avalanche. Less likely, but not impossible, are avalanches failing on drifted slopes with a more southerly aspect. Please consider what a MODERATE risk for dying really means. This is far from a green light, and unless you like playing Russian Roulette, continue to avoid steep, northerly facing terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We are filled with grief to report four fatalities from a skier triggered avalanche in the Wasatch Mountains on Saturday. All were well known members of the backcountry community. Here is the preliminary report. Additionally, yet another avalanche fatality has occurred in WA; preliminary report. In a little over a week, there have been 16 avalanche fatalities across the U.S. Conditions are dangerous in most regions and ours is no exception. Please stay conservative in your terrain choices.

The Geyser Pass Road is plowed. Conditions are snow-packed and icy and all-wheel drive is recommended.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed all trails with classic track on Wednesday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 1" Base Depth in Gold Basin 39" Wind SW 10-15 Temp 28 F
The mountains picked up an inch of snow yesterday and WNW winds were mostly light. They've shifted to the SW early this morning and have bumped up into the teens with gusts to 20 mph along ridgetops. Today will be the last sunny day for a while as an active weather pattern is lining up out in the Pacific. The first system to move through on Friday looks to favor the northern mountains but we could see 3"-5". A better chance for higher amounts comes from the next system to move through late Saturday into Sunday. Active weather continues into next week.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
Wind and warm temperatures have created variable conditions but settled powder can still be found below treeline on sheltered northerly aspects. On sunny slopes, the snow surface has crusted over, and coverage remains thin. Many slopes on almost every aspect have a weak snowpack structure but the most dangerous areas are near and above treeline on NW-E-SE aspects. On Wednesday, Chris Benson investigated a relatively recent avalanche on a NNW aspect in Miners Basin. The pattern we are seeing throughout the range is that stubborn slabs continue to fail on weak layers buried deep in the snowpack. These slabs have the potential to propagate far and wide. This is especially true in areas that have been wind loaded. These slabs are growing more stubborn, BUT, don't be fooled by the absence of cracking and collapsing. Although these warning signs are becoming less frequent, the underlying poor-snowpack structure may still produce large and destructive avalanches. With new snow in the forecast over the coming days, triggering this type of avalanche will become increasingly more likely.
Recent Avalanches
Chris Benson observed this relatively recent avalanche up in Miner's Basin on Wednesday. It was likely triggered by the additional weight of wind transported snow late last week. This type of avalanche remains susceptible to human triggers.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow are present on many aspects and elevations. On slopes facing NW-N-E-SE, slabs 1'-3' deep exist on top of these weak layers. While recent warm temperatures and time have helped the snowpack gain some strength, deep and dangerous, human-triggered avalanches remain possible in these areas. The danger increases with elevation and human triggered avalanches become more likely above treeline, particularly on slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
The photos below illustrate classically poor snowpack structure with a clearly defined fist to 4 finger hard slab on top of weak, sugary, facets. In other words - strong snow over weak snow. Stability tests indicate a stubbornness to release but this only makes them harder to predict. It's like provoking someone with a violent temper - you don't know when they are going to explode. As long as this snow structure remains in place, I won't be provoking any steep northerly facing slope.
Additional Information
For you snow geeks out there check out this snowpit from Chris Benson. This is how the pros record data. Compare the photo with the graph to see how it corresponds to the snowpack. The Y-axis is the snow depth. The X-axis represents the hardness of each layer. Remember we are looking for harder layers over weak layers. In this case, you can see how the area between 20-40 cms is problematic. The layer at 30 cms represents a thin crust with weak snow above and below. Above 40 cms there is a slab on top of the weak snow.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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