Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Sunday, December 9, 2018
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE today on steep, upper elevation terrain that faces NW-N-E, and human triggered avalanches breaking down into buried, persistent weak layers are likely in these areas. At mid and lower elevations the danger is MODERATE, and human triggered avalanches are still possible on steep, northerly facing slopes that have buried, weak, faceted snow.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
I'll be giving a free Know Before You Go avalanche awareness presentation Thursday, Dec 13, at 6:00 pm at the Grand County Library. Hope to see you there!
Weather and Snow
Another day like this is on tap.
Skies are clear, WNW winds are light, and 10,000' temps are in the mid teens. Today look for mostly sunny skies, light to moderate NW winds, and high temps at 10,000' near 30 degrees. A ridge of high pressure is building over the region and we will see dry conditions through Tuesday. Our next chance for snow looks to be on Wednesday.
It's been a week since the last storm cycle, and wind and sun have taken their toll on exposed surfaces but you can still find good riding conditions in sheltered locations. It's still low snow conditions out there and rocks and deadfall lurk just beneath the surface so be careful out there. Base depth in Gold Basin is 33".
Lots of folks have been out and about enjoying the early December snow, and much thanks to all who have sent in observations this week! Check them out here.
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Recent Avalanches
In my travels yesterday I was able to observe more natural activity from last weeks snow and wind event. Evidence of soft slabs and loose sluffs releasing in the storm snow last Sunday was abundant on steep, upper elevation terrain primarily facing NE. More importantly however, were avalanches with fractures up to 4' deep on steep slopes facing NW-N-NE. These likely occurred late Tues night or early Wed morning when strong WSW winds drifted snow overloading buried persistent weak layers. This was not a widespread cycle, and slopes with similar aspect and elevation still have the potential to avalanche with a human trigger.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Time heals and it's been about a week since nearly 30" of snow was added to persistent weak layers in the snowpack. These layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow are prevalent on any slope that has held snow since October. Basically any slope above about 10,000' that faces NW-N-E. These layers are beginning to gain strength and adjust to the new load, but yesterday I, and other observers still witnessed collapsing in the snowpack, a sign that these layers are still reactive to the weight of a skier or rider. Continue to avoid steep slopes that face NW-N-E as human triggered avalanches are likely in these areas.
General Announcements
Volunteers from LUNA were up grooming yesterday and it's game on for Nordic skiing!