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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Wednesday morning, December 4, 2024
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep slopes facing W-N-E at all elevations and on slopes facing SE near treeline and above. Human-triggered avalanches failing on persistent weak layers remain POSSIBLE.
The danger is LOW on slopes facing SW-S, and on low elevation SE aspects.
Conditions remain thin and rocks, stumps, and dead fall still pose a significant hazard.
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Special Announcements
We have several events coming up to kick off the winter season:
Thursday, December 5 - FREE Know Before You Go avalanche awareness talk 6 PM at the Grand County Public Library
Saturday, December 7 - 17th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW) - Information and tickets available here.
Saturday, December 14 - 3rd Annual UAC Moab/LUNA Winter Kickoff Party, 6 PM at the MARC. Information and tickets available here.
Geyser Pass Road: The La Sal Loop Road will be closed above Pack Creek Monday-Friday from 8:30 to 5:30 for construction through December 18. Access to the Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead will be from Castle Valley or Sand Flats Road during these hours. Click here for more information.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 44" Depth at Gold Basin: 24"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NE 5 mph Temp: 24° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 200%
Weather
It is 24 degrees in Gold Basin this morning. The winds are remarkably calm. NE winds will blow at just 5 MPH today. Daytime highs will reach the low 30's. Sunshine and warm temperatures dominate through the weekend.
General Conditions
The skiing that is available right now is better than you might think when you consider that we only have 2 feet of settled snow and it's just the first week of December. There has been almost no wind to speak of in the mountains, and this has preserved the few inches of soft powder on the surface. You can still find fun turning on low-angle northerly slopes. Yesterday, we were surprised by how well the solar aspects skied. Sunshine and warm temperatures made for soft, spring-like turns on the sunny slopes. This may actually be the best game in town right now. If you ride slopes that face South and Southwest, you can avoid the persistent weak layer problem and still get some fun turns in. Keep in mind, that coverage on these slopes is very thin, and you need to look out for rocks and other obstacles. If you choose to ride Northerlies, travel advice is to keep your slope angles below 30 degrees as the persistent weak layer problem will be with us for some time.
If you are getting into the backcountry, let us know what you are seeing. See the list of Moab observations here.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
While it's old news now, we continue to find slopes that avalanched during the pre-Thanksgiving storm that dropped 3.7 inches of water on the La Sal range. The slope in the photo below is adjacent to Lone Pine and is North facing around 10,800'.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The pre-Thanksgiving storm created all the ingredients necessary for avalanches. Natural activity has ceased because the snowpack has adjusted to the load. However, the weight of a skier or rider can still trigger an avalanche because of the poor snowpack structure that exists on slopes that face W-N-E-SE. Steep slopes at the middle elevation bands have well-connected weak layers and continue to produce the most consistent results in stability tests. These slopes warrant as much caution as upper-elevation slopes.
This avalanche from the Wasatch is a great example of the instability we are currently dealing with. What stands out is that “most of this slope had a couple dozen ski tracks on it.” When persistent weak layers are involved, tracks on a slope do not indicate stability.
The photo below shows the current setup, with strong snow (the slab) on top of the weak layer.
Additional Information
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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