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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Tuesday, December 25, 2018
Look for a rising avalanche danger over the next 24 hours. Today there will be an isolated, or MODERATE avalanche danger on steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow, primarily in upper elevation terrain that faces NW-N-E. There also remains an isolated, MODERATE danger for triggering a dangerous avalanche 2'-4' deep on steep, rocky, north facing terrain that has an underlying weak and sugary snowpack. Most other terrain has generally LOW danger.
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Weather and Snow
Christmas is going to arrive a little late, but it looks like we may get a nice white package tonight with 5"-10" of new snow by mid-day tomorrow. Overnight we picked up another inch on top of yesterday's 2", with a reported 3"-4" up at Geyser Pass. 1"-2" are possible today. This incremental refresh is starting to improve conditions but low snow conditions exist at mid and lower elevations so be wary of rocks and deadfall lurking just beneath the surface. Base depth in Gold Basin is 29".
I don't expect the avalanche danger to increase much until tonight, but be on the lookout today for areas with fresh deposits of wind drifted snow in exposed, upper elevation terrain. SE winds have been on the increase overnight blowing in the 20-30 mph range with gusts as high as 40. Breezy conditions will continue today with SW winds continuing to blow in the 20-30 mph range along ridge tops. High temps at 10,000' will be in the high 20's.
For further information check out the most recent observations here.
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Current snow conditions are pretty rough but it's still beautiful up there!
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Today you'll want to be on the lookout for developing deposits of wind drifted snow. The danger should be mostly minimal, but it will be increasing throughout the day. Look for fresh deposits of wind drifted snow on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. By tomorrow, this problem will become more widespread. Additionally, a few old, hard wind slabs covered by the new snow, are still lurking about in the high country, particularly on slopes with an easterly aspect. Avoid steep slopes with a smooth, rounded appearance, or that sound hollow like a drum.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The odds of triggering a dangerous avalanche on a buried, persistent weak layer have significantly decreased, but the consequences remain very high. Steep, rocky, north facing terrain that has a weak, sugary, underlying snowpack continues to be a risky proposition. The danger in these areas will increase over the next 24 hours.
Additional Information
Grooming info:
Expect to find a few inches of new snow on the trails today. No grooming is scheduled.
General Announcements
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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