Join us at our 2nd Annual Blizzard Ball

Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, December 19, 2024
Most terrain has generally LOW danger. Dry-loose avalanches or sluffs may run on steep, northerly aspects.
A very isolated, or MODERATE danger remains on steep slopes above treeline that face NW-N-NE-E. Human-triggered avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer are possible. Areas of concern include steep convexities, cliff bands, and shallow rocky areas.

Conditions remain thin and rocks, stumps, and dead fall still pose a significant hazard.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Our Moab Backcountry 101 class is officially sold out. Thanks for signing up! Other on-snow classes are available here.
Geyser Pass Road: The road is plowed to the trailhead. Surface is dirt down low, snowpacked and icy above. AWD with good tires recommended.
The road above the winter trailhead is officially closed to wheeled vehicles. Grooming will begin soon.
Announcement: Now is a great time to dial in your safety gear including putting fresh new batteries in your beacons! Local shops across the state will be handing out free Batteries for Beacons now until February 1, 2025. All you need to do is fill out a quick survey and grab the AAA or AA batteries you need to keep your beacon fresh this season. Head into Moab Gear Trader to get yours!
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 46" Depth at Gold Basin: 23"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 10-20 Temp: 24° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 115%
Weather
Overnight, NW winds bumped up into the 20-25 mph range along ridge tops before easing back down into the teens. Today, look for sunny skies, most light WNW winds, and high temps soaring into the mid to upper 30's. Expect more of the same for the next few days. Our eyes continue to be focused on a Christmas miracle.
General Conditions
Dave got up into the alpine on Tuesday, read his full report here. Above treeline he found mostly hard-packed conditions due to strong winds over the weekend. In contrast to the still supportable slab I found up around Geyser Pass on Sunday, Dave found a deteriorating snowpack on shady aspects near treeline and below. In these areas, the surface snow is weakening and losing cohesion. Sluffs may run on the steepest slopes at these elevations. There is still some concern for the buried persistent weak layer on high northerly aspects where an overriding slab of harder snow still exists.
Maggie Neilsen was out yesterday braving conditions, see her excellent observation here.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Alpine terrain is a mix of scoured surfaces and old, hard wind crusts. I'm looking for quality turns elsewhere.
South faces are looking pretty thin. Maggy Nielsen photo.
Recent Avalanches
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Poor snowpack structure, comprised of a dense slab over weak, faceted snow still exists in some areas. In specific areas above treeline, the slab is cohesive enough to produce avalanches. The problem with basal facets is that even though it has been a long time since our last avalanche, you can still get surprised. All you need to do is find a trigger point. This is why we have a hard time trusting this setup. While the likelihood is decreasing, the bottom line is human-triggered avalanches remain possible. If triggered, these D2 avalanches will break to the ground, en-training the full depth of the snowpack. Likely trigger points include rocky, radical terrain, steep convexities, cliff bands, and shallow slope margins.
On some near treeline slopes, and many slopes below, the slab has faceted through and has lost all cohesion. This is where you will find the softest snow right now but obstacles are not far below the surface. Looking ahead, this loose, cohesion-less snow will undoubtedly form our next persistent weak layer when snow finally comes.
Additional Information
Sign up for text alerts to get the most up to date information about changing conditions, road plowing, special avalanche announcements.
Follow us on Instagram @utavy_moab
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.