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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, December 19, 2021
Areas of CONSIDERABLE danger remain on steep, upper elevation terrain that faces NW through E where deposits of wind drifted snow and a dense slab 2'-3' thick exist on top of a persistent weak layer of sugary faceted snow. Human triggered avalanches remain likely in these areas. On mid and lower elevation northerly aspects a MODERATE avalanche danger exists, and triggering a dangerous, 2' deep avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer remains a very real possibility. The best strategy for now is to continue to avoid steep, northerly facing terrain.
On upper elevation, W through SE facing slopes a MODERATE danger exists for human triggered avalanches involving recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and they may sound hollow underneath. Cracking is a sign of instability.
Most other south facing terrain has a generally LOW danger.
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The road is snowpacked and AWD with good tires recommended.
Grooming: LUNA (Lower Utah Nordic Alliance) volunteers groomed Geyser Pass through Gold Basin Thursday.
Batteries for Beacons runs through Dec 19. Get free batteries for your transceiver and a chance to win 1 of 10 Black Diamond Rescue Kits, 1 of 3 Mammut Barryvox transceivers, or 1 of 3 BCA Tracker transceivers. Stop in at Moab Gear Trader, fill out our survey and get a free set of batteries. Don't need batteries, but still want a chance to win? Simply fill out the survey to be registered.
I was recently interviewed by Peggy Hodgkins for Science Moab. You can listen to the podcast: The Art of Avalanche Forecasting here.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 22" Wind SW 5-10 Temp 17F
Light NW winds yesterday shifted to SW around 3:00 a.m. this morning, and mountains temps are about 10 degrees warmer than they were yesterday at this time. Today look for sunny skies, light SW winds and high temps in the mid 20's. Monday will see more of the same. A complicated weather pattern continues to evolve for later in the week with a variety of potential outcomes. For now, the best chance for snow looks like Thu-Fri.
A crew of local observers were out and about yesterday. They reported good conditions with 4"-5" of settled powder on a dense, supportable base in wind sheltered areas. They also reported one collapse during the day and a snowpit revealed the continued presence of weak, October facets and crusts on northerly aspects. A stability test however did not produce propagation. Read the full report from Travis Nauman here. As the snowpack quiets down and becomes less reactive, things start to get tricky, kind of like walking through a minefield. Some slopes may be ok, some not. With a known weak layer and a 2' slab on top, I'm personally not trusting it. The safe strategy for now is to continue to avoid steep, northerly facing terrain.
Weather Links
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Recent Avalanches
This harrowing avalanche accident that resulted in a complete burial was caught on video in the Wasatch Mountains on Friday. Fortunately, the victim was rescued without major injury. Much thanks to the involved party for sharing this information.
No new avalanches have been reported since last week's storm event. Here is the current avalanche list.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A dense, cohesive slab exists on a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary facets that formed in the October snow. Stability tests have shown that the slab has grown more stubborn to release, but occasional collapses indicate that the snowpack is not yet stable. Any avalanche triggered on this layer would be 2' deep or more, and would be very dangerous. It's early season, and with a snowpack structure consisting of a slab on top of an obvious persistent weak layer, I'd continue to avoid steep, northerly facing slopes for the time being.
Additional Information
And for you snow geeks out there. Check out this snowpit from Travis Nauman. Picture it as building blocks as it illustrates hard or denser layers over weak layers. The further a layer is shown stretching out to the left, the harder it is. The weak layer of concern is between 35-40 cms. Thanks Travis!
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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