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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, December 18, 2020
Data this morning is suspect but 5" of new snow is being reported. The new snow shouldn't increase the avalanche danger all that much but at upper elevations, there is an isolated or MODERATE danger for small avalanches involving new or wind drifted snow. On mid and upper elevation northerly aspects, old, pre-existing snow has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow on top of a slick, hard bed surface. An avalanche failing on one of these weak layers is currently unlikely, but each additional snow load incrementally increases the probability. Collapsing or whumping in the snowpack are signs of this type of instability.
Overall low coverage makes it very difficult to access avalanche terrain at this time, but if you find yourself in these areas, suspect slopes that have smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow. Cracking in the snow surface is a sign of instability. Even a small avalanche triggered under these conditions can have serious and painful consequences.
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Special Announcements
Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
We've kicked off Season 4 of the UAC podcast with a Conversation with American Avalanche Institute owner Sarah Carpenter. You can stream it HERE or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.
The Geyser Pass Road above the winter trailhead has officially closed to wheeled vehicles for the season. This closure is in effect from Dec 15 - May 15.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) has begun grooming. Trails were last groomed on Tuesday, December 15.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 5" 72 Hour Snow 7" Base Depth in Gold Basin 24" Wind NW 5-10 G35 Temp 17F
None of the models out there indicate what we're seeing this morning but Gold Basin is reporting 5" of new snow. The sensor has been malfunctioning lately but this morning it seems to be reading accurately. Until proven otherwise this forecast will be based on the existing data. Overnight SW winds blew in the 10-15 mph range with gusts in the mid 20's along ridgetops. They shifted to the NW around 5:00 a.m. and abruptly dropped into the single digits. Showers will linger this morning with mostly cloudy, but gradually clearing skies throughout the day. Northerly winds should be light, and high temps will be near 20 degrees at 10,000'. Dry conditions return for the foreseeable future.
Prior to last weekend's storm, snow cover was mostly limited to northerly facing, shady slopes above about 9500', and depths ranged from a few inches to 18" or more at the higher elevations. Most sun-exposed slopes were bare. Aerial observer Chris Benson did a flyover of the range on Tues. Read his observation with photographs here. The bottom line is that there isn't enough snow for skiing and riding off of snow-packed roads and grassy meadows, and low snow cover is the biggest hazard out there right now. Barely covered rocks and deadfall can quickly ruin your season.
Check the links below for the most current real-time weather info:
Storm totals at the Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000')
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
If the data is to be believed we could have upwards of 6" at the higher elevations. This is enough snow to think about loose sluffs and soft slab avalanches involving new and wind drifted snow. This terrain is very difficult to access, but if you find yourself in these areas, suspect steep slopes, especially those with fresh wind drifts. These can often be recognized by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On mid and upper elevation northerly aspects, old, pre-existing snow has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow on top of a slick, hard bed surface. An avalanche failing on one of these weak layers is currently unlikely, but each additional snow load will incrementally increase the probability.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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