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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, December 19, 2020
5" of new snow that fell at upper elevations yesterday has created a MODERATE avalanche danger for shallow, soft slab avalanches involving new and wind drifted snow on all aspects. Overall low coverage makes it very difficult to access avalanche terrain at this time, but if you find yourself in these areas, suspect slopes that have smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow. Cracking in the snow surface is a sign of instability. Even a small avalanche triggered under these conditions can have serious and painful consequences.
On mid and upper elevation northerly aspects, old, pre-existing snow has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow on top of a slick, hard bed surface. An avalanche failing on one of these weak layers is currently unlikely, but each additional snow load incrementally increases the probability. Collapsing or whumping in the snowpack are signs of this type of instability.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road above the winter trailhead has officially closed to wheeled vehicles for the season. This closure is in effect from Dec 15 - May 15. The road to the trailhead is snowpacked and slick. 4wd is recommended.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) will be up grooming today.
Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
We've kicked off Season 4 of the UAC podcast with a Conversation with American Avalanche Institute owner Sarah Carpenter. You can stream it HERE or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 5" Base Depth in Gold Basin 22" Wind NW 10-15 G25 Temp 10F
Areas of fog exist in the lower valleys but skies are clear above. Today, look for sunny skies, continued moderate northerly ridgetop winds, and high temps in the low 20's. The crystal ball shows dry and mostly sunny conditions for the upcoming week. A weak system will clip by well to the north Tue-Wed, with the next advertised low dropping south by the weekend.
Dave Garcia and Nate Ament verified Gold Basin snow totals yesterday and they cleaned 4.5" off the board but they reported some areas with as much as 10" of new. This is in sharp contrast to the 1" that fell at the Geyser Pass trailhead. Read their observation here. They reported cracking within the new snow on isolated features with overall coverage still too thin for actual skiing and riding.
Check the links below for the most current real-time weather info:
Storm totals at the Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000')
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Cracking within the new snow was observed yesterday and some of this sensitivity may remain today. This could manifest in the form of shallow, soft slab avalanches isolated terrain features on all aspects, but primarily at upper elevations. This terrain is very difficult to access, but if you find yourself in these areas, suspect steep slopes, especially those with fresh wind drifts. These can often be recognized by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On mid and upper elevation northerly aspects, old, pre-existing snow has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow on top of a slick, hard bed surface. An avalanche failing on one of these weak layers is currently unlikely, but each additional snow load will incrementally increase the probability.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.