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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, December 20, 2020
Most terrain has generally LOW danger. At upper elevations, there is an isolated, or MODERATE avalanche danger on slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Overall low coverage makes it very difficult to access avalanche terrain at this time, but if you find yourself in these areas, suspect slopes that have smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow. Cracking in the snow surface is a sign of instability. Even a small avalanche triggered under these conditions can have serious and painful consequences.
On mid and upper elevation northerly aspects, old, pre-existing snow has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow on top of a slick, hard bed surface. An avalanche failing on one of these weak layers is currently unlikely, but each additional snow load incrementally increases the probability. Collapsing or whumping in the snowpack are signs of this type of instability.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road above the winter trailhead has officially closed to wheeled vehicles for the season. This closure is in effect from Dec 15 - May 15. The road to the trailhead is snowpacked and slick. 4wd is recommended.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed all trails yesterday.
Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
We've kicked off Season 4 of the UAC podcast with a Conversation with American Avalanche Institute owner Sarah Carpenter. You can stream it HERE or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 5" Base Depth in Gold Basin 22" Wind NW 10-15 G25 Temp 13F
Mountain Weather
Overnight, northwesterly winds continued to blow in the 15-25 mph range along ridgetops. Skies are clear and 10,000' temps are in the low teens. Today, look for sunny skies, light northerly winds, and high temps in the upper 20's. A weak system may drop far enough south on Tuesday to give us a chance of snow before the building of a ridge. On Thursday, a low-pressure system looks to be taking a dive well south of us. By Friday, the flow flattens and turns zonal. The next promise of hope comes as we close out the month and year around the 29th.
Snowpack Discussion
2"-5" of new snow fell across the range on Friday. Overall coverage is still too thin for skiing and riding off of packed roads. The current snowpack structure is very poor and it is now just a waiting game for future snow loads. Dave Garcia and Nate Ament were up on Friday. Read their observation here.
Storm totals at the Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000')
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Cracking within the new snow was observed on Friday. In addition, northerly winds have continued to blow and drift snow in the highest elevations. This terrain is very difficult to access, but if you find yourself in these areas, suspect steep slopes with fresh deposits of wind drifted snow. These can often be recognized by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On mid and upper elevation northerly aspects, old, pre-existing snow has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow on top of a slick, hard bed surface. An avalanche failing on one of these weak layers is currently unlikely, but each additional snow load will incrementally increase the probability.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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