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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, December 13, 2020
Blowing and drifting of the most recent snow has created a MODERATE avalanche danger on steep, upper elevation, northerly facing slopes. Overall low coverage will make this type of terrain difficult to access, but if you find yourself in these areas, suspect slopes that have smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow. Cracking in the snow surface is a sign of instability.
Low snow cover will create the biggest hazard out there right now, and barely covered rocks and deadfall can quickly ruin your season. Even a small avalanche triggered under these conditions can have serious and painful consequences.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Winter finally arrived in the region bringing a decent shot of snow to the mountains, and even an inch or two to the valleys yesterday. Storm totals range from 6" at the Geyser Pass Trailhead to an estimated 8"-10" in Gold Basin. Upper elevations may have received up to a foot of new snow. Ridgetop winds during the storm blew in the 20-30 mph range from the SW before backing off and shifting to more northerly later in the day.
Today will be a glorious day in the mountains with fresh snow, sunshine, and high temperatures in the low 20's. Look for increasing clouds tonight with another shot at a few inches of snow on Monday, with another chance on Thursday.
It will be a great day to dust off the boards or fire up the machine and ease into winter but low snow coverage dictate extreme caution and travel beyond roads or grassy slopes and meadows is not recommended. Prior to this storm, snow cover was mostly limited to northerly facing, shady slopes above about 9500', and depths ranged from a few inches to 18" or more at the higher elevations. Most sun-exposed slopes were bare. Needless to say, coverage is quite thin, and barely covered rocks and logs lurk just beneath the surface.
We're having some weather station issues that we're working to iron out, but keep checking the links below for the most current real-time weather info:
Storm totals at the Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000')
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Unstable areas of wind drifted snow likely exist on steep, upper elevation, northerly facing slopes, primarily in areas where there was pre-existing snow. The pre-existing snow has deteriorated into a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow. This will likely turn into a persistent weak layer problem as more snow is piled on top. But for now, if you find yourself in steep, upper elevation, northerly facing terrain, avoid recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Even a small avalanche triggered in these shallow snow conditions could have devastatiing consequences.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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