Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, December 14, 2020
Blowing and drifting of the most recent snow has created a MODERATE avalanche danger on steep, upper elevation, northerly facing slopes. In some cases, slabs have developed over top of a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow. Overall low coverage will make this type of terrain difficult to access, but if you find yourself in these areas, suspect slopes that have smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow. Cracking in the snow surface is a sign of instability.
Low snow cover will create the biggest hazard out there right now, and barely covered rocks and deadfall can quickly ruin your season. Even a small avalanche triggered under these conditions can have serious and painful consequences.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 6" Base Depth in Gold Basin 20" Wind SSE 20-25 G40 Temp 11F
After a beautiful, calm day yesterday, southerly winds increased overnight. They'll back off along ridge tops into the 10-15 mph range today as a mid-level trough moves through the Four Corners region bringing us another chance of snow. 2"-4" are possible. Showers will taper off by this evening, winds will shift to the north, and temperatures will plummet into the single digits overnight. Tuesday looks to be mostly sunny with high temps creeping up into the teens. We'll see some brief ridging before our next chance for snow on Thursday.
Prior to the last storm, snow cover was mostly limited to northerly facing, shady slopes above about 9500', and depths ranged from a few inches to 18" or more at the higher elevations. Most sun-exposed slopes were bare. Needless to say, coverage is quite thin and there still isn't enough snow for recreation beyond snowpacked roads.
Check the links below for the most current real-time weather info:
Storm totals at the Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000')
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Southerly winds continue to blow and drift snow, and unstable areas likely exist on steep, upper elevation, northerly facing slopes, primarily in areas where there was pre-existing snow. The pre-existing snow has deteriorated into a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow. This will likely turn into a persistent weak layer problem as more snow is piled on top. But for now, if you find yourself in steep, upper elevation, northerly facing terrain, avoid recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Even a small avalanche triggered in these shallow snow conditions could have devastating consequences.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Poor snowpack structure with a persistent weak layer is developing on upper elevation northerly aspects. In isolated areas, slabs formed by recent and wind drifted snow may have created enough of a load that you could trigger an avalanche down to this weak layer. For the most part, this condition exists in nearly inaccessible terrain, but it's something we'll want to keep a keen eye on. When enough snow accumulates that we can think about real skiing and riding, steep northerly facing aspects will be off-limits for the foreseeable future.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.