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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, November 30, 2024
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes facing W-N-SE. In these areas, a dense slab is sitting on top of a pre-existing, faceted weak layer, and human triggered avalanches are likely.
A MODERATE danger for triggering shallow, fresh slabs of wind drifted snow exists in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain.
The danger is mostly LOW on slopes facing SW-S near treeline and below, and on low elevation SE aspects. Small avalanches on isolated terrain features are possible.

Conditions remain thin and rocks, stumps, and dead fall still pose a significant hazard.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We have several events coming up to kick off the winter season:
Thursday, December 5 - FREE Know Before You Go avalanche awareness talk 6 PM at the Grand County Public Library
Saturday, December 7 - 17th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW) - Information and tickets available here.
Saturday, December 14 - 3rd Annual UAC Moab/LUNA Winter Kickoff Party, 6 PM at the MARC. Information and tickets available here.
Geyser Pass Road: The Geyser Pass Road is plowed but snowpacked and slick in some areas. All wheel drive and good tires recommended. Thank you Grand County!
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 44" Depth at Gold Basin: 25"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 18-22 Temp: 12° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 112%
Weather
Ridge top winds from the north picked up overnight averaging 20-25 mph. They'll decrease today and shift to westerly and we'll see another mostly calm, sunny day with high temps creeping up to around 30°. We'll see continued benign weather and a gradual warming trend through the week.
General Conditions
Increased northerly winds over night have probably blown a little snow around and there may be a few shallow fresh drifts about. It's now been four days since our whopper of a storm created a dense slab over top of pre-existing weak, faceted snow. Human triggered avalanches failing on this weak layer will gradually become less likely as the snowpack adjusts to the load, but the problem will be with us for some time. The dense snow has made for supportable travel, and you are able to ride above many of the rocks, logs, and stumps, but be advised, it's still low tide out there with only about 2' of overall coverage.
Here's some great drone footage shot by Chris Benson on Nov 27 to give you a birds eye view of how things are looking up there:
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A dense cohesive slab now exists over top of a pre-existing layer of weak, faceted snow that has been sitting around since October. This layer exists at all elevations on slopes facing W-N-E, and on SE aspects near and above treeline that still held snow prior to the storm. Collapsing of the snowpack and reactive snow pit tests indicate serious instability in these areas. This problem will be with us for awhile, and slopes steeper than 30 degrees are to be avoided. You can also trigger avalanches from lower angle terrain beneath slide paths. Give them a wide berth.
In my travels yesterday I dug on a lower elevation W facing slope and found very poor structure. An extended column test produce results of ECTP 11. See photos below:
The snowpit diagram below illustrates the current structure of strong snow over weak snow. This was dug on Nov 27 on a N aspect at 11,200'. On top you can see the dense slab created by the recent heavy snow. Underneath is the weak, faceted snow, with the red line indicating where we got failure in an extended column test (ECTP 16). A layer of deteriorating basal ice makes up the bottom 5 cms.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Increased northerly winds overnight have likely blown and drifted a little snow. Look for shallow, fresh drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in exposed terrain.
Additional Information
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.