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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, November 29, 2024
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes facing W-N-SE. In these areas, a dense slab is sitting on top of a pre-existing, faceted weak layer, and human triggered avalanches are likely.
The danger is mostly LOW on slopes facing SW-S and on low elevation SE aspects. Small avalanches on isolated terrain features are possible.

Conditions remain thin and rocks, stumps, and dead fall still pose a significant hazard.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
We have several events coming up to kick off the winter season:
Thursday, December 5 - FREE Know Before You Go avalanche awareness talk 6 PM at the Grand County Public Library
Saturday, December 7 - 17th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW) - Information and tickets available here.
Saturday, December 14 - 3rd Annual UAC Moab/LUNA Winter Kickoff Party, 6 PM at the MARC. Information and tickets available here.
Geyser Pass Road: The Geyser Pass Road is plowed but snowpacked and slick in some areas. All wheel drive and good tires recommended. Thank you Grand County!
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 18" Season Total Snow: 44" Depth at Gold Basin: 26"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: W 5-8 Temp: 12° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 178%
Weather
More calm, clear weather on tap. Winds will be light from the SW, and high temps will be in the mid 20's. More of the same for the foreseeable future.
General Conditions
It's now been three days since we picked up 18" of snow at a whopping 3.7" of Snow Water Equivalent. This was an incredible base building event that was capped off with 6" of medium density powder. The dense snow has made for supportable travel, and fast skiing and riding, even on low angle terrain. That's the good news. The bad news is, it fell on pre-existing, weak, faceted snow setting us up for a long term, persistent weak layer problem. In our travels yesterday we continued to experience collapsing of the snowpack (see my observation) as did Charlie Ramser's party (see their observation). The strong sun yesterday definitely had an effect on the snow surface on exposed slopes and I expect most southerly facing terrain will have a crust on it today. It's also still quite low tide. The dense snow helps keep you up above some of the rocks, logs, and stumps, but there's still plenty of sharks in the water.
Here's a video of conditions on January 27:
And here's some great drone footage shot by Chris Benson to give you a birds eye view of how things are looking up there:
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
We didn't observe as many avalanches as I thought we would which is somewhat disconcerting, but we did observe this significant slide in Talking Mountain Cirque in upper Gold Basin. We also saw evidence of several others that had blown back in including these that Chris spotted with the drone.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A dense cohesive slab now exists over top of a pre-existing layer of weak, faceted snow that has been sitting around since October. This layer exists at all elevations on slopes facing W-N-E, and on SE aspects near and above treeline that still held snow prior to the storm. Collapsing of the snowpack and reactive snow pit tests indicate serious instability in these areas. This problem will be with us for awhile, and slopes steeper than 30 degrees are to be avoided. You can also trigger avalanches from lower angle terrain beneath slide paths. Give them a wide berth.
In my travels yesterday I dug on a lower elevation W facing slope and found very poor structure. An extended column test produce results of ECTP 11. See photos below:
The snowpit diagram below illustrates the current structure of strong snow over weak snow. This was dug on Nov 27 on a N aspect at 11,200'. On top you can see the dense slab created by the recent heavy snow. Underneath is the weak, faceted snow, with the red line indicating where we got failure in an extended column test (ECTP 16). A layer of deteriorating basal ice makes up the bottom 5 cms.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.