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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Wednesday morning, January 8, 2025
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep slopes above treeline that face W-N-SE and near treeline on slopes that face NW-N-E. Human-triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE failing on a weak layer of facets buried a foot below the surface. In the wind-zone, these avalanches could be up to three feet deep. Backcountry travelers need to evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
There is a MODERATE danger of triggering avalanches in recently formed slabs of wind-drifted snow on all slopes above treeline. Look out for and avoid fat, round pillows of drifted snow.
Many slopes have thin cover and rocks, stumps, and logs are lurking just beneath the surface.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: Surface is mainly snowpacked and icy. AWD with good tires required.
Grooming Conditions: Gavin took the snow cat to Geyser Pass on Monday, and I rolled out the Gold Basin Road.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 1" Season Total Snow: 58" Depth at Gold Basin: 30"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: N 3 G 7 Temp: 8° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 100%
Weather
It is a cold 8° F under clear skies this morning in Gold Basin. Yesterday saw a sustained period of strong winds out of the NNE. The winds backed off just after midnight and are currently light out of the North. Northerly flow will keep things brisk today with a high temperature of 17° F and North winds blowing 5-10 MPH. Strong North winds return tomorrow, averaging in the 20s MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH. Cold temperatures remain through the weekend and Saturday brings a 30% chance of snow showers.
General Conditions
We may only have a 30-inch base at Gold Basin, but skiing conditions are surprisingly good for such a shallow base depth. The foot of new snow since Christmas has dramatically improved turning conditions. There has been some strong wind lately, and exposed slopes near treeline and above are hit or miss. Some offer excellent powder conditions, while others are wind-affected and scoured. You don't know til you go. One thing you can bet on is excellent settled powder turns on sheltered slopes in the trees. Many solar aspects are extremely thin and rocky. Yesterday we enjoyed great turns on a low-angle West face that held just over three feet of snow. Read our full observation here.
Today's primary avalanche concern is a weak layer of faceted snow buried and preserved by the Christmas storm. This layer is about a foot below the surface and is easily located with a quick dig. Human-triggered avalanches up to a foot deep or more are possible and you will need to evaluate each slope individually for a slab over this weak layer. When in doubt, seek out slopes less than 30 degrees in steepness. For more information on this weak layer, see the video below.
Additionally, strong winds out of the Northeast have blown and drifted snow into fresh slabs on all aspects above treeline. Fresh drifts will be sensitive to the weight of skiers and riders. Backcountry travelers will need to look out for and avoid areas of drifted snow.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
See the avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Recent and wind-drifted snow has added additional stress to buried persistent weak layers increasing the likelihood of human-triggered avalanches in some locations. The danger is greatest on steep, wind-loaded, northerly aspects near treeline and above.
A layer of near-surface facets (NSF) formed during the long December dry spell. This layer is now buried about a foot deep and has been sensitive in recent stability tests. It is especially reactive in areas where the wind has drifted enough snow to form a stiff slab on top. Tuesday's strong winds have made this problem more widespread. Human-triggered avalanches are most likely to fail here first and could be 1-3 feet deep in drifted areas. It is important to carefully analyze any slope you are considering by digging down to see if the poor structure exists. Avalanches triggered on this weak layer could also step down into our second faceted weak layer at the base of the snowpack. Avalanches failing on this layer would be deep, dangerous, and possibly un-survivable.
The overall height of snow is still relatively shallow, and the faceted snow at the base of the pack will remain a concern until we get a much deeper snowpack. While the chances are low, full-depth hard slab avalanches failing on the basal facets remain possible in thin snowpack areas or steep, rocky, radical terrain. To avoid this problem, I am simply avoiding big lines in alpine terrain.
Eric's pit on a NE aspect near treeline at 11,100' is a great example of the current weak snow structure. An extended column test on Sunday produced easy propagation (ECTP 6) on the buried near-surface faceted layer.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong winds blowing from the NE on Tuesday have whipped up a fresh batch of wind-drifted snow. NE winds are somewhat of an anomaly for the La Sal range. Uncommon wind directions can create unusual loading patterns. Look out for slabs of wind-drifted snow on all aspects above treeline. This problem is most pronounced in the alpine, but I wouldn't be too surprised if some drifts penetrated into near treeline terrain as well. The recent drifts will be especially sensitive anywhere they have formed above the preserved NSF layer that was buried on 12-25.
  • Wind slabs often form on the lee-side of exposed ridges and in and around terrain features. Watch for and avoid drifts on gully walls, under cliff-bands, along sub-ridges, and in scoops, saddles, and sinks.
  • Drifted snow is stiffer and more compacted than non-drifted snow, and hard drifts often produce hollow, drum-like sounds when you walk on them.
  • Freshly formed wind slabs can be quite sensitive and are often remotely triggered.
  • Shooting cracks in drifted snow are a sure sign of instability.
Additional Information
The final accident reports for Porter Fork and Davenport Hill up in the Wasatch Mountains have been completed. Our hearts go out to all who were affected by these tragic events.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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