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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, January 29, 2024
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes near and above treeline that face W-N-E-SE. Although the odds have been slowly decreasing, human triggered avalanches, 2'-6' deep failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain possible to likely. Continue to avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees in these areas.
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on all aspects below treeline, and on steep slopes facing SW-S at all elevations. This includes the possibility for loose, wet snow avalanches on sun exposed slopes as the day heats up.
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Grand County will be doing maintenance on the road today and the gate will be closed while work is in progress.
Grooming: Matt groomed all trails and set classic track yesterday.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 95" Base Depth at Gold Basin 41"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 5-10 G 15 Temp 26˚ F
Weather
We remain under a ridge of high pressure that is s parked over the West. Sunny skies and warmer than average temperatures will continue for the next few days. High temperatures will be near 40F at 10,000'. Overnight lows will be in the lower 20's and winds will be generally light from the NW. A pattern change is shaping up for later in the week but details are not yet certain. There may have been a bit of premature hype.
General Conditions
It will be another beautiful day in the mountains. Soft settled powder over a now mostly supportable base can still be found today on shady aspects, but places that have seen the sun will be crusted over. Expect things to get sloppy today on sun exposed slopes. A strong slab is developing over the weak faceted snow underneath and it is becoming harder to affect by the weight of a skier or rider. In my travels to the Abajos yesterday I found a snowpack similar to what we have here on northerly aspects. I experienced no collapsing or whumphing, and ECT scores are high, but they are failing deep in the snowpack. Other parties up here over the weekend, however, did report collapsing at very low elevations where the snowpack is quite thin. We are entering a tricky phase. Thinner snowpack areas remain highly problematic, while deeper areas remain highly suspect. Dangerous avalanches remain possible to likely and avoidance of slopes steeper than 30 degrees that face W-N-E-SE continues to be the strategy.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of faceted snow exists about 2 feet below the snow surface. Over the past two weeks it has produced widespread collapsing, a few natural avalanches, and continuously reactive stability tests. In our travels on Friday, Dave and I observed the first signs that this weak layer is gaining strength in some areas. This does not mean we are out of the woods. On the contrary, it means that things are about to get more tricky. When outward signs of instability such as collapsing and whumphing are in our face, the danger is obvious. When they aren't present, it can give us a false sense of security. As far as faceted weak layers are concerned, they take a long time to heal. Areas where you are most likely to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche are on slopes steeper than 30 degrees that face W-N-E-SE.
This profile is from a NE facing slope at 11,250'. The top few inches are soft snow that fell over the past week. The 4 finger to 1 finger slab is the rest of the snow that fell in January. The December drought layer is becoming more dense, and did not produce a failure. The 4 finger facet layer beneath is also gaining strength. The weakest snow remains near the ground where fist density facets can be found. An extended column test produced results of ECTP 30 at the top of this layer. What this tells us is that in deeper snowpack areas, it is becoming harder for the weight of a person to affect buried weak layers, but if they did, the avalanche would be deep and nearly to the ground. In shallower snowpack areas, it is easier to affect this buried weak layer, and human triggered avalanches are much more likely.
Additional Information
Want some more insight into the La Sal Mountains as well as the communal impacts of a tragic avalanche? Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Eric Trenbeath where he discusses the range, it's often treacherous snowpack, and how the devastating avalanche in February, 1992, affected the Moab community.
Our avalanche beacon checker sign and beacon training park are up and running. A huge thanks to Talking Mountain Yurts for sponsoring those this season!
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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