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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, January 11, 2026

Although not widespread, areas of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exist on steep, wind loaded slopes at and above tree line that face N-NE-E. In these areas large and dangerous, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are likely. A MODERATE avalanche danger for this type of avalanche exists on all other northerly facing slopes near tree line and above. Avoiding slopes steeper than 30 degrees in these areas is the only way to avoid this problem.

A MODERATE avalanche danger exists for human triggered avalanches involving recent deposits of wind drifted snow. This danger may be found on all aspects above tree line, and on near tree line slopes facing N-NE-E-SE. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.

Conditions remain thin and hazards such as rocks and logs are thinly covered.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: The road was plowed on Friday.

Grooming: LUNA groomed all trails on Friday.

We are looking to reschedule our Moab Backcountry 101 Class to February 20, 21 in the hopes that we will have more snow. Click here for information and registration. Moab and Monticello locals can use the discount code MOAB-LOCAL for a 10% discount.

Weather and Snow

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 2" Season Total Snow: 36" Depth at Gold Basin: 24"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NE 25-30 Temp: 23° F

Weather

We just can't get a break from the wind. Blowing from the north, ridge top winds started to pick up overnight before swinging to the northeast where gusts as strong as 43 mph were recorded. They should back off and swing to the west later today. High temperatures at 10,000 feet will be in the upper 20s. We should see some clouds this afternoon. Beyond that there isn't much to report as high pressure takes hold over the region.

General Conditions

Storm totals from Thursday measured 4-6 inches of low density powder bringing us up to around 16 inches at a little over 2.5 inches of snow water equivalent since the new year. Strong winds blowing from the northwest on Friday averaged 25-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph sending huge plumes of snow off the peaks and drifting snow on to leeward slopes. The snow from the past week has formed a cohesive slab over top of the Christmas rain crust and the entire snowpack underneath is loose, weak, and faceted creating a perfect recipe for avalanches. Wind drifted snow has exacerbated the problem. In sheltered areas, snow depths range from about 24 inches at 10,000 feet to up to 3 feet or more at upper elevations. It's a bit hit and miss, but you can still find soft snow on all aspects in sheltered areas.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
On Friday, we received a report of a large, snowmobile triggered avalanche in upper Dark Canyon where a rider was caught, carried, and partially buried. Dave and I went up yesterday to have a look. What we found is in the video below. Full report to follow.

Also check out this incredible drone footage shot by pro observer Chris Benson who joined us up there yesterday.

Click here for the complete avalanche database.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

The poor snowpack structure has proven that it is capable of producing large and dangerous, human triggered avalanches. The likelihood of triggering an avalanche largely depends on the strength and thickness of the rain crust, and the amount of recent wind loading which seems to have been a key factor in Friday's snowmobile triggered avalanche. The most dangerous slopes are those facing north and east above tree line where large and dangerous human triggered avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer remain likely. All other northerly facing slopes near tree line and above remain suspect and the only sure way to avoid the problem is to avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees in these areas.

Results of an extended column test on a NE aspect around 11,000 feet. Note the thickness of the slab failing on a deeply buried, faceted weak layer near the ground. An avalanche of this size and depth would be very dangerous.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Northeast winds overnight may whip up a fresh round of wind slabs. Underneath that, strong winds blowing primarily from the northwest have redistributed snow and formed potentially unstable drifts on virtually all aspects above tree line, and on slopes with an easterly component near tree line. Most of these drifts should be gaining strength by now but continue to be on the lookout for unstable deposits of wind drifted snow.
Although the prevailing pattern from north winds would seem to deposit snow on to leeward south and easterly aspects, the nature of the terrain here makes it very susceptible to cross loading and we often see wind loading on northerly aspects as well. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls and sub ridges. On west through north aspects, fresh drifts may form adjacent to bare ground, with a variation in terrain making all the difference. Suspect steep slopes that have have a smooth, rounded appearance or that sound or feel hollow underneath. Cracking is a sign of instability.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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