Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Monday morning, March 9, 2020
Monday morning, March 9, 2020
Heightened avalanche conditions exist in the backcountry and areas with MODERATE danger can be found at all elevations in the Logan Zone. People could trigger wet avalanches on steep lower and mid elevation slopes with saturated, melt-softened snow, and some natural avalanches are possible during the heat of the day. Up higher, human triggered avalanches of recently wind drifted snow and cornice falls are possible in steep terrain.
- Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
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Weather and Snow
It's a cool 31°F and there is about 7 inches of new snow from yesterday morning at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel. There is 83 inches of total snow containing around 118% of normal Snow Water Equivalent. It's 23°F at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, and south winds are increasing a bit this morning, currently blowing about 25 mph.
It rained yesterday on already soft and saturated snow on lower and mid elevation slopes. About 7 inches of new snow fell at upper elevations, drifted this morning by south winds in exposed upper elevation terrain. Heightened avalanche conditions exist at all elevations, and people could trigger wet avalanches on lower and mid elevation slopes facing the northern half of the compass, and avalanches of wind drifted snow in terrain exposed to drifting up higher.
It rained yesterday on already soft and saturated snow on lower and mid elevation slopes. About 7 inches of new snow fell at upper elevations, drifted this morning by south winds in exposed upper elevation terrain. Heightened avalanche conditions exist at all elevations, and people could trigger wet avalanches on lower and mid elevation slopes facing the northern half of the compass, and avalanches of wind drifted snow in terrain exposed to drifting up higher.
A couple of weak weather systems will move east across the northern Rockies and bring precipitation to far northern Utah today. A storm system off the southern California coast will move inland midweek, then impact mainly southern Utah through the end of the week. Snow showers are likely this afternoon, with an inch or two of accumulation expected. It will be mostly cloudy with 8500' high temperatures around 38°F, and west-southwest winds will blow 7 to 16 mph along the ridges. Snow showers are likely tonight, with 1 to 3 inches possible, low temperatures around 25°F, and 9 to 17 mph west winds. Snow showers are possible tomorrow morning, with high temperatures around 38°F, and west winds will blow 9 to 15 mph.
Recent Avalanches
Mid elevation north facing slopes were active yesterday and may still be dangerous today, with several natural wet avalanches observed in Logan Canyon. On Saturday, a skier was caught and carried on top of the wet debris at least 800 vrt' in a wet avalanche at around 2:30 in the afternoon in the North Syncline Gully .. North facing, estimated start of the avalanche was at about 7800'. The party is unsure if they triggered the avalanche or if it was a natural from above.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
I under forecasted the wet avalanche problem yesterday, and dangerous conditions existed on northerly facing mid elevation slopes in Logan Canyon. We noticed several natural avalanches. I was taking pictures of fresh natural wet avalanche debris above Guiniva-Malibu Campground when I accidently caught another one starting to fall off cliffs just down-canyon...
A natural avalanche is beginning to fall off the cliffs just west the amphitheater gully above Guinava-Malibu Campground. (yesterday afternoon, 3-7-2020)
Although it looks like it dropped a bit below freezing for a few hours overnight, temperatures stayed well above freezing at lower elevations this weekend, and rain fell on already melt-softened saturated snow. A few inches of heavy snow accumulated on mid elevation slopes, insulating the warm, and saturated snow that was on the surface last week. People could trigger wet avalanches on steep slopes with saturated snow again today, and natural wet avalanches may also still be possible on steep slopes with saturated, melt-softened snow
- Roller balls, pinwheels, and naturally occurring sluffs or other avalanches indicate potential for wet avalanche activity.
- Avoid being on or under steep slopes with saturated snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
About 7 inches of new snow fell on upper elevation slopes Saturday night, drifted by westerly winds. Southwest winds picked up a bit last night and are blowing about 25 mph this morning, which is certainly strong enough to drift snow around. People could trigger avalanches of wind drifted new snow on steep slopes at upper elevations, most likely on slopes facing the eastern half of the compass...
- Cracking is a red flag, indicating unstable snow.
- Watch for and avoid drifts near ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
- Avoid ridge top cornices, which can break much further back than expected and could start avalanches on slopes below.
Additional Information
A cross country skier was charged and trampled by a moose in upper Green Canyon last week, resulting in a very shaken skier and a broken ski pole. The big beasts are out and about, and they can be pretty grumpy this time of year. People and dogs need to yield the packed trail to the moose and give them lots of room.
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
I will update this forecast before about 7:30 Wednesday morning.