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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Friday, March 4, 2022
Unseasonably warm temperatures have caused heightened wet avalanche conditions in the backcountry. MODERATE avalanche danger exists at all elevations, with natural and human triggered wet avalanches possible. Also, people still might trigger shallow slab avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer, cornice falls, or loose dry avalanches entraining sugary faceted snow in very steep shady terrain. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
Finally, much needed snow is on the way! Good news, but with widespread layers of very weak snow at all elevations, expect rising avalanche danger in the backcountry this weekend.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Thanks to the generous support of our local resorts and Ski Utah, discount lift tickets are now available. Support the UAC while you ski at the resorts this season. Tickets are available HERE.
Weather and Snow
Way too warm temperatures in the mountains again will cause heightened avalanche conditions in the backcountry today. The 8400' Tony Grove Snotel reports 40°F this morning, and there is 60 inches of total snow at the site, with 84% of normal SWE for the date. Winds out of the south are blowing about 25 mph at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. The early March heat is delivering quite a devastating hit to our snowpack, and the surface of the snow even up high in shady terrain was getting a bit moist yesterday. As you might expect after a very dry February, backcountry snow conditions are quite variable. The extra warm temperatures are softening once supportable surface crusts, making travel difficult because you sink into bottomless loose sugary snow. Sunny low and mid elevation slopes are burning off quickly, especially on the "front side" or the western slopes of the Bear River Range.

Finally it looks like a significant change in the weather pattern. The first half of March will be a return to winter and snow is expected in the Logan Zone this weekend and next week. With widespread shallowly buried persistent weak layers plaguing terrain facing the northern half of the compass at all elevations, the avalanche danger rise significantly in the backcountry. Dangerous avalanche conditions will likely develop this weekend.
  • Expect cloudy skies and snow showers in the mountains today, and the last day in a string of day with very warm temperatures. 8500' high temperatures will be around 40°F, with 15 mph west-southwest winds, and 1 or 2 inches of accumulation is possible.
  • It will be mostly cloudy tonight and snow showers are likely, with 1 to 3 inches of accumulation possible. Temperatures will drop to around 21°F, with 10 to 15 mph west winds.
  • Snow is likely tomorrow and tomorrow night, with 6 to 10 inches of additional accumulation possible by early Sunday morning. Expect high temperatures tomorrow around 32°F, and 7 to 11 mph west winds, veering from the south in the afternoon. Temperatures will drop to around 13°F and southwest winds will increase a bit on Saturday night.
  • Dangerous avalanche conditions are fairly likely on Sunday, with continued snow accumulations in the mountains. Looks like perhaps a break in the weather on Monday, but unsettled, wintry weather will continue next week. The next storm could begin to impact the zone on Tuesday.
A thin pit wall back-lit by the sun. The harder crust layers are darker and the very weak layers of faceted snow allow more light to pass.
Recent Avalanches
An observer noticed a couple recent loose wet avalanches the ran off the Cutler Headwall in the Ogden Mountains.
Despite rapid warming, no wet or other avalanche activity has been reported in the last few days. People triggered a few small wind slab avalanches on drifted slopes in the Logan Zone last week, even though we only picked up a few inches of new snow.
Last week, a rider was caught and carried a short distance and his sled overturned in this small avalanche of wind drifted snow.
Check out all the recent backcountry observations and avalanche reports from across Utah HERE
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Cloud cover and cooling temperatures will probably keep a lid on avalanche activity, but the warmth and lack of a good refreeze in a few nights makes for a high level of uncertainty. Small natural and triggered loose wet avalanches, entraining warmth softened surface snow, are possible again today. Although unlikely, it has been so warm that dangerous wet slab avalanches may be possible on very steep slopes with saturated weak snow.
  • Roller balls, pinwheels, and natural sluffs of wet surface snow indicate potential for more wet activity.
  • Natural loose wet avalanches could start in rock bands or cliffy areas and fan out, entraining moist surface snow on steep slopes below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Although unlikely, people might trigger slab avalanches of previously wind drifted snow in steep upper elevation terrain. Last week, shallow drifts formed on slopes plagued by layers of sugary faceted snow. Some old wind slabs may remain unstable for a while because the sugary snow that they formed on is a buried persistent weak layer. The warmth is softening crusts and shallow old wind slabs, making it more possible for people to trigger avalanches.
  • Avoid stiffer, previously drifted snow on steep slopes at mid and upper elevations on the lee side of ridges and in and around terrain features like sub-ridges, gullies, and cliff bands.
Loose dry avalanches (or sluffs) of recrystallized or faceted snow are possible in sheltered terrain facing the northern half of the compass on very steep slopes.
  • Manage loose avalanches by staying out of constricting terrain, like drainage gullies, and moving out of the fall line so you don't get caught by your own sluff.
  • Avoid being caught and pulled into terrain traps below you like trees, gullies, or benches.
Additional Information
  • Now is a great time to practice your avalanche rescue skills. Thanks to the generous support of Northstar, the Franklin Basin Beacon Training Park is up and running. The park is located directly west of the parking lot and is open for anyone to use. All you need is your beacon and probe. Please do not dig up the transmitters.
  • Always follow safe backcountry travel protocols. Go one person at a time in avalanche terrain, while the rest of your party watches from a safe area. (practice anytime while traveling on or under backcountry slopes steeper than 30°)
  • Check your avalanche rescue equipment, change your batteries, and practice often with your backcountry partners.
    Check slope angles, and to avoid avalanche terrain stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30° and adjacent slopes. Video Here
General Announcements
Special thank you to Polaris and Northstar...Video Here
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
  • Check out all the upcoming education classes and clinics HERE.
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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