Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Friday morning, February 28, 2020
Friday morning, February 28, 2020
Snow is stable, avalanches are unlikely, and the danger LOW on most slopes in the backcountry. Exceptions may exist on very steep slopes at upper elevations, where people might trigger shallow slab avalanches of wind drifted snow or small loose sluffs of moist surface snow in sunny terrain.
- Use normal caution, which means check everyone's rescue gear, and continue to follow safe travel protocols.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
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Weather and Snow
It's 25°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel, and there is 86 inches of total snow, containing 116% of normal Snow Water Equivalent. West-northwest winds are blowing around 20 mph this morning at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, and it's 24°F.
The snow is stable on most slopes in the Logan Zone and avalanches are unlikely. Exceptions might be found on steep upper elevation slopes, where shallow wind drifts exist on slopes facing the eastern half of the compass, and people could trigger small loose sluffs of moist surface snow on sunny slopes. You can still find nice, soft shallow powder conditions in sheltered shady terrain and smooth dust-on-crust on many other slopes. We are still finding the best riding conditions on sheltered slopes and in lower angled terrain.
High pressure aloft will settle over the Great Basin through tonight. A storm system will move south across the region late Saturday through early Monday, followed by a second weaker storm Tuesday. We'll see sunny skies today, with 8500' high temperatures around 35°F, and 7 to 9 mph southwest winds. It will be partly cloudy tonight, with low temperatures around 22°F, southwest winds 10 to 16 mph. Tomorrow will be sunny with high temperatures near 34°F, and southwest winds 15 to 18 mph. It looks like a winter storm will move over the zone Saturday night and Sunday, with 7 to 13 inches of accumulation possible on upper elevation slopes.
Recent Avalanches
Observers in the last week report triggering small avalanches of wind drifted snow and loose dry sluffs on steep upper elevation slopes in the Mount Naomi Wilderness. No other avalanches were reported in the Logan Zone recently.
Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There is Low danger in the backcountry and avalanches are unlikely but not impossible. People should check everyone in their party to make sure all their avalanche rescue gear is in good working order. Be sure everybody has a beacon, probe, and shovel. Continue to practice safe backcountry travel protocols, which means only cross steep slopes and avalanche paths one-at-a-time while the rest of your party watches from a safe location. Although avalanches are generally unlikely, they are still possible, especially on steep upper elevation slopes.
- Early this week, several inches of snow fell at upper elevations in the Bear River Range, and it was drifted by fairly strong westerly winds. Shallow drifts formed on some upper elevation slopes, mainly on those facing the eastern half of the compass. Although these have adjusted significantly, people might trigger shallow avalanches of wind drifted snow on very steep slopes.
- Loose sluffs of moist snow sliding on slick crust are possible on steep sunny slopes. These will be mostly manageable, but people should avoid travel on very steep sunny slopes with potential terrain traps below.
Westerly winds this week drifted Monday's snow, scouring it off exposed windward facing slopes and depositing it where the winds decelerate on the lee side of major ridges and around terrain features.
- Watch for and avoid drifts near ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
- Avoid ridge top cornices, which can break much further back than expected and could start avalanches on slopes below.
Additional Information
Many slopes are quite slick and treacherous due to rain and rime events earlier in February. You could encounter slippery and dangerous "slide for life" conditions in steep terrain with a hard snow surface or a shallowly buried thick crust. An ice ax and crampons, (or whippet and ski crampons) may be needed for safe travel on many of the steep slopes and mountaineering routes in the zone.
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
I will update this forecast before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.