Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Tuesday morning, February 25, 2020
Tuesday morning, February 25, 2020
Heightened avalanche conditions exist on steep slopes at upper elevations, where the danger is MODERATE and people could trigger shallow slab avalanches of wind drifted snow or loose dry sluffs of new snow. The snow is stable, avalanches are unlikely, and the danger is LOW on most other slopes in the backcountry.
- Use normal caution, and evaluate upper elevation snow and terrain carefully.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
It's 11°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel, and there is about 7 inches of new snow with 0.6" Snow Water Equivalent in the last 48 hours. There is 91 inches of total snow, containing 122% of normal. Northwest winds maintained average speeds in the upper teens overnight at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. They are currently blowing around 16 mph, and it's 4°F.
The snow is stable on most slopes in the Logan Zone and avalanches are unlikely. Exceptions today will be found on upper elevation slopes, where shallow wind drifts exist on slopes facing the eastern half of the compass, and people could trigger loose sluffs of new snow on steep slopes. We found only an inch or so of new snow yesterday in Wood Camp. The new snow fell on a slick and hard sun-crust in Ham Hollow, and without ice axes and crampons we chose not to climb to the top. There was more risk of falling and sliding out of control than of avalanches. Recrystallized powder conditions were nice, soft, and smooth on shady slopes over the weekend, and we are still finding the best riding conditions on sheltered slopes and in lower angled terrain.
We found nice soft and smooth recrystallized powder in sheltered shady terrain this weekend, with the best riding on lower angled slopes.
High pressure will gradually build into the region through the remainder of the week. We'll see sunny skies today, with 8500' high temperatures around 20°F, and 8 to 10 mph west-northwest winds, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Wind chill values will be as low as -4°F. It will be mostly clear tonight, with low temperatures around 5°F, southwest winds around 8 mph, and wind chills around -4°F. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with high temperatures near 24°F, and west-southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
High pressure will gradually build into the region through the remainder of the week. We'll see sunny skies today, with 8500' high temperatures around 20°F, and 8 to 10 mph west-northwest winds, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Wind chill values will be as low as -4°F. It will be mostly clear tonight, with low temperatures around 5°F, southwest winds around 8 mph, and wind chills around -4°F. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with high temperatures near 24°F, and west-southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Recent Avalanches
A party reports easily triggering loose dry sluffs of new snow on steep upper elevation slopes in Upper Cottonwood Canyon in the Mount Naomi Wilderness yesterday. No other avalanches were reported in the Logan Zone since last week...
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
West winds picked up and were quite strong for several hours Sunday night, with hourly average wind speeds near 40 mph and gusts in the 60s on Logan Peak. The winds moderated yesterday, but they've maintained wind speeds in the upper teens overnight. Several inches of new snow fell on upper elevation slopes in the Central Bear River Range, and shallow drifts have formed on some upper elevation slopes facing the eastern half of the compass. Some of these are still likely to be sensitive today, and people could trigger shallow wind slab avalanches.
- Cracking is a red flag, indicating unstable snow.
- Watch for and avoid drifts near ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
- Avoid ridge top cornices, which can break much further back than expected and could start avalanches on slopes below.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Loose dry sluffs of a few inches of new snow sliding on slick crust are possible on all steep upper elevation slopes with accumulations of new snow. The loose avalanches will be mostly manageable, but people should certainly consider and avoid travel on very steep slopes with potential terrain traps and/or trees below.
Additional Information
Many slopes are quite slick and treacherous due to rain and rime events earlier in February. You could encounter slippery and dangerous "slide for life" conditions in steep terrain with a hard snow surface or a shallowly buried thick crust. An ice ax and crampons may be needed for many of the steeper mountaineering routes.
We found a thick and solid crust in Hattie's Bowl last week. The bomber crust is widespread in lower elevation terrain.
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
I will update this forecast before about 7:30 Wednesday morning.