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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
UPDATE 12:30: Much more heavy snow than expected has elevated avalanche conditions at all elevations. The danger is CONSIDERABLE, with natural and human-triggered loose and soft slab avalanches of storm snow now likely on slopes steeper than 30°. Although becoming more unlikely, people might trigger dangerous avalanches failing up to 2 feet deep on a thin, persistent weak layer in isolated sunny terrain. Wet avalanches, entraining heavy piles of moist new snow, are possible in most low and mid-elevation terrain.
Avoid being on or under slopes steeper than 30° and stay clear of avalanche runouts
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Weather and Snow
We found surprisingly good powder riding conditions at higher elevations with colder temperatures, especially in shady terrain. The sun popped out in the afternoon, and clouds caused greenhousing to occur. The warm temperatures had a detrimental effect on the snow, dampening the powder and causing widespread swams of roller balls and loose surface sluffs. Both human-triggered and natural avalanches of storm snow are possible on slopes steeper than 30° at all elevations. Soft slab avalanches are most likely in wind-affected terrain, and small natural loose avalanches are likely on very steep slopes at all elevations. In some places, loose avalanches overrunning a slope with significant new snow accumulation could trigger a more dangerous soft slab avalanche.
Heavy snowfall is visible on Beaver's webcams. The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 5 inches of new snow with .6" SWE (snow water equivalent) from early this morning. It's currently 26° F, and there is 105" of total snow (121% of normal). The wind is blowing from the south this morning around 15 mph with gusts in the 30's mph at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. At 9500' on Paris Peak, winds are generally light and variable, currently blowing from the northeast around 8 mph, and it's 19° F.
Snow could be heavy at times today, especially at upper elevations, with 4 to 8 inches of accumulation possible. The winds will blow from the west-northwest 9 to 13 mph. High temperatures at 8500' are expected to be around freezing, but will be closer to 40° F down in Logan Canyon. Tonight will be mostly cloudy and 1 to 3 inches of additional accumulation is possible, with upper-elevation temperatures falling to around 18° F.
Tomorrow will be partly sunny with high temperatures up high around 30° F.
It looks like fair weather through the upcoming weekend, with the next storm impacting the zone beginning on Monday.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday in the Logan zone, there were numerous small natural avalanches of moist storm snow. Most of these were small loose avalanches, with a few shallow soft slab avalanches triggered by overrunning loose avalanches also observed. Extensive roller-ball swams, small loose wet avalanches, and a few larger natural soft or perhaps wet slab avalanches in the Mt Naomi Wilderness were spotted from the valley yesterday evening. see the report
Check out all local observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Loose and soft slab avalanches of storm snow are possible at all elevations today, and dangerous conditions could develop in some areas with more than expected accumulation. Both natural and human-triggered avalanches are possible, with loose avalanches potentially widespread. Natural avalanches are most likely during periods of particularly heavy snowfall.
  • Avoid being on or under steep slopes during periods of heavy snowfall.
  • Watch for and avoid soft wind drifts on the lee side of major ridges, corniced slopes, and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, gully walls, and mid-slope rollovers.
  • Stay well away from and out from under overhanging cornices, which may break further back than expected.
  • Soft slab and loose avalanches of new snow are possible even in more sheltered terrain.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Although becoming unlikely, avalanches on isolated mid or upper-elevation slopes may fail 2-3 feet deep on a thin layer of small-grained, sugary, or faceted snow that caps a solid melt-freeze crust. This thin, persistent weak layer was buried by the productive storms over the past five days but is healing or gaining strength quickly. The problem is more pronounced in sunny terrain where the thin layer of faceted snow sits atop a supportable melt-freeze crust. Natural avalanches in the Mt Naomi Wilderness viewed from the valley yesterday evening likely failed on this layer. View the observation.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With warm temperatures forecast for lower elevations today, wet avalanches entraining saturated new snow are possible.
  • Roller balls, pinwheels and natural sluffs or loose avalanches are signs of instability.
  • Avoid being on or under steep slopes with saturated new snow.
*If you plan on fishing the Logan River today, be mindful of what's above you. Avoid standing under steep slopes where warmth-saturated snow may slide down on top of you.
Additional Information
A natural slab avalanche in the Mt Naomi Wilderness spotted from the valley. The avalanche on a southwest-facing slope at around 8000' was likely triggered by roller balls or a wet sluff overrunning the slope.
General Announcements
-Listen to your very own Logan Zone avalanche forecasters on the UAC Podcast HERE.
-Read my recent blog about wind, drifting, and avalanches HERE.
-Sign up for forecast region-specific text message alerts. You will receive messages about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings...HERE.
-For all questions on forecasts, education, Know Before You Go, events, online purchases, or fundraising, call 801-365-5522.
-To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry, go HERE.
-Come practice companion rescue at the Franklin Basin TH Beacon Training Park. It's free and open to everyone. For easy user instructions, go HERE.
-Toby will update this forecast by 7:30 AM tomorrow.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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