Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Friday morning, December 6, 2019
Friday morning, December 6, 2019
Heightened avalanche conditions exist, and there is MODERATE danger in steep shady terrain at upper elevations. You could trigger a dangerous avalanche failing on a persistent weak layer of loose sugary snow near the ground. You can find safer conditions and LOW danger at lower elevations, in sheltered terrain, and on slopes that were bare before the Thanksgiving storm.
- Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
There's an inch of new snow and it's 28°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel this morning. I'm reading 30 inches of total snow containing 7" SWE, which is 99% of normal for the date. It's 22°F at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, and south-southwest winds are blowing about 20 mph. Heightened avalanche conditions persist on upper elevation slopes facing northeast, north, and northwest, and dangerous human triggered avalanches remain possible.
Today will be partly sunny, with 8500' high temperatures around 31°F and 10 mph southwest winds. It'll be cloudy in the mountains tonight, with temperatures around 25°F. I expect we'll see increasing danger of avalanches involving wind drifted snow this weekend, and tonight, 10-15 mph south-southwest winds will increase to 18-23 mph during the night. It will be partly cloudy tomorrow, with snow showers in the afternoon. Expect high temperatures around 28°F, and it will be breezy, with 25 mph southwest wind. A progressive but weakening storm will bring several inches of snow to the Logan Zone Saturday night and Sunday.
Recent Avalanches
Tuesday, a solo skier unintentionally triggered a good sized avalanche failing on the sugary persistent weak layer near the ground in the west half of Miller Bowl south of Tony Grove Lake. The avalanche on a north facing slope at around 8700' was around 2' deep and at least 150' wide.
A natural avalanche involving wind drifted snow was spotted by observers Sunday (12-1-19) on the west side of Logan Peak in upper Logan Dry Canyon. The fresh avalanche was about 1 foot deep and 300 feet wide..
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Most sunny slopes were bare and many others patchy or crusty after the prolonged November dry spell. But on slopes above about 8000' facing northwest, north, and northeast, the old October snow has grown sugary and very weak. Dangerous and destructive avalanches failing near the ground are possible, and the danger on many of these slopes will persist for a while. The snow is gradually becoming more stable, but avalanches on some slopes could still be triggered remotely, from a distance, or below! Tuesday's close call in Miller Bowl near Tony Grove Lake confirms that dangerous human triggered avalanches remain possible in some areas.
- Even small avalanches can be very dangerous in shallow snow conditions, because you could be dragged into rocks or stumps.
- Cracking and collapsing are red flags indicating unstable snow conditions.
Additional Information
Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, we have discount lift tickets available. All proceeds from these go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education! Get your tickets HERE.
Need a Christmas present for your favorite backcountry partner? Get one of these cool t-shirts to support the UAC and other avalanche centers across the U.S. HERE
General Announcements
The Tony Grove Road is not maintained for wheeled vehicles in the winter, and it is snowpacked, narrow, and icy in places. You could easily get stuck in deep snow, and it doesn't look like anyone was able to drive very far up recently. Hikers, cross country skiers, snow bikers, dogs, sleds, and 4x4s share the road this time of year, so be nice and keep your speed down around others.
It's key to head into the early avalanche season with the proper mindset. In this podcast, we talk with UAC program director Bo Torrey. Bo talks about particular risks unique to the early season, tips and tricks for knocking the rust off your early season rescue skills, and charts out the path forward with avalanche education. HERE