Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Wednesday morning, December 18, 2019
Wednesday morning, December 18, 2019
Heightened avalanche conditions exist in the backcountry, and you could trigger an avalanche on a drifted upper elevation slope. MODERATE danger exists on upper elevation slopes facing northwest, north, and northeast, and very dangerous human triggered avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer near the ground remain possible. You can find great powder, safer conditions, and LOW danger on most mid and lower elevation slopes and in sheltered terrain.
- Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Weather and Snow
It's 22°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel this morning, and I'm reading 49 inches of total snow, with 120% of average SWE for the date. I'm unable to contact the CSI Logan Peak weather station, but it's 26°F on James Peak, and southwest winds are blowing 11 to 13 mph.
Looking at the crown of a recent natural avalanche in Miller Bowl, East (from Saturday) on a north facing slope at 8700'. The avalanche failed on a persistent weak layer near the ground.
A strong high pressure system will set up over the zone and bring mostly fair weather to the mountains and thickening haze to the valleys. Expect mostly sunny conditions in the mountains today, with 8500' high temperatures around 25°F, and 10 mph south winds. It will be mostly cloudy tonight with low temperatures around 5°F, 9 to 13 mph west-southwest winds, and wind chills around -9°F. It will be mostly sunny on Thursday, with high temperatures around 23°F, and west-southwest wind around 9 mph. Powder conditions are fantastic, even in sunny and lower elevation terrain, but heightened avalanche conditions exist on drifted slopes, and dangerous and destructive avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer remain possible on northerly facing upper elevation slopes.
Recent Avalanches
I'm sorry to report Utah's first avalanche fatality this season. On Sunday 12-15-19, a 45 year old male snowboarder was killed in a backcountry avalanche in Dutch Draw in the Wasatch Mountains above Park City.
Here is the Accident Report
Locally:
Natural activity from Saturday became apparent with clearing Sunday. Fairly widespread new snow and wind slab avalanches occurred across the zone and and we could see several large hard slabs releasing on sugary faceted October snow on high north and northeast facing slopes. Generally 3 to 4' deep and a few hundred feet wide, including Miller Bowl, East (above Tony Grove Lake) which took down some trees and ran to the flats. Recent large natural avalanches were also observed in Wood Camp and on Providence Peak, Naomi Peak, and Cornice Ridge.
Natural avalanche in "the Nose" on Cornice Ridge.
A large natural avalanche in the Central Wood Camp Bowls. (12-17-19)
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow are possible on upper elevation slopes.
- Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
- Drifted snow often appears smooth and chalky, and it can be hollow sounding like a drum.
- Soft, fresh wind slabs are often quite sensitive, while harder wind slabs can be devious, sometimes allowing a person to get out on them before releasing.
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Even small avalanches can be very dangerous in shallow snow conditions, because you could be dragged into rocks or stumps.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Very weak sugary, faceted snow from late October lurks near the ground at upper elevations on shady northerly facing slopes. Large, destructive, and very dangerous avalanches are possible where this poor snow structure exists. Dangerous avalanches on some slopes could be triggered remotely, from a distance, or below!
- Cracking and collapsing are red flags indicating unstable snow conditions.
Large natural avalanches occurred on Saturday on several upper elevation northerly facing slopes. The avalanches failed on weak, sugary or faceted October snow near the ground.
Additional Information
Remember the Beaver Mountain Backside is the backcountry. Buddy up! Everyone venturing beyond the ski area boundary should have a partner(s), beacon, probe, and shovel.
General Announcements
Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, we have discount lift tickets available. All proceeds from these go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education! Get your tickets HERE.
Consider taking an avalanche class, there are many different options. Click on the Education menu for a full list of classes from the UAC and other providers. Check out the Know Before You Go eLearning program for free, online, avalanche classes.... HERE
Need a Christmas present for your favorite backcountry partner? Get one of these cool t-shirts to support the UAC and other avalanche centers across the U.S. HERE
It's key to head into the early avalanche season with the proper mindset. In this podcast, we talk with UAC program director Bo Torrey. Bo talks about particular risks unique to the early season, tips and tricks for knocking the rust off your early season rescue skills, and charts out the path forward with avalanche education. HERE
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