Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Monday morning, January 27, 2020
Monday morning, January 27, 2020
Several inches of heavy new snow and drifting from westerly winds overnight created heightened avalanche conditions. MODERATE danger exists and people could trigger avalanches of fresh wind drifted snow on steep upper and mid elevation slopes. A bit of rain fell on the snow at lower elevations and wet avalanches are possible on steep slopes with saturated snow. Although increasingly unlikely, dangerous human triggered avalanches failing on a deeply buried persistent weak layer remain possible on isolated upper elevation slopes facing northwest, north, east, and southeast.
- Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
It's 24°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel this morning, and there is about 7 inches of new snow from overnight with 0.6" of Snow Water Equivalent. There is 79 inches of total snow, containing 124% of normal SWE. Winds are currently blowing from the northwest around 23 mph, gusts in the mid 40s, and it's 17°F at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station.
Several inches of fresh snow fell last night at upper elevations, and shallow powder conditions should be nice, especially in sheltered terrain. Northwest winds dropped down into terrain in the Central Bear River Range and there will be plenty of drifting going on today.
Expect mostly cloudy conditions in the mountains today, with 8500' high temperatures around 26°F, and blustery, 15 to 24 mph west-northwest winds. Snow showers are possible tonight, with low temperatures around 19°F, and 11 to 14 mph west winds. Snow is likely in the mountains Tuesday, with 1 or 2 inches possible. It will be cloudy, with a high temperature near 28°F, and 14 mph west wind. Snow is expected to fall in the mountains Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High pressure aloft will expand across the Great Basin late in the week and remain through the weekend.
Recent Avalanches
We triggered and noticed many other recent natural roller ball swarms and small loose sluffs in shady mid and lower elevation terrain in Card Canyon yesterday. This type of activity was widespread on steep slopes across the zone.
Sunday, 1-19-2020, a solo skier triggered and was caught and carried by a huge avalanche failing on a deep persistent weak layer in Miller Bowl near Tony Grove Lake. Luckily, the skier was able to walk away uninjured.
Paige approaching the large crown in Miller Bowl, 1-21-2020.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Several inches of heavy snow fell overnight on upper elevation slopes and westerly winds were plenty strong enough to move it around. Northwest winds this morning continue to drift last night's snow, picking it up in the flats and on windward slopes or fetch areas and dropping it into lee slope deposition areas and avalanche starting zones. Drifts this morning could be quite sensitive to human triggering, but they should become more stubborn as the day progresses.
- Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow near ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
- Avoid ridge top cornices, which can break much further back than expected and start avalanches on slopes below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A little rain fell on lower elevation slopes last night, and temperatures in the valley remain above freezing this morning. Loose wet avalanches are possible on steep lower and mid elevation slopes with saturated snow. We triggered lots of large roller balls, roller swarms, and small sluffs at mid and lower elevations in Card Canyon yesterday. Cooler weather should help with this problem today, but warmer temperatures are expected at lower elevations again tomorrow.
- Avoid travel on or under steep slopes with saturated snow.
- Roller balls, pin-wheels, and loose sluffs indicate potentially unstable wet snow.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible on isolated upper elevation slopes. Apparently, some avalanches can step down into buried persistent weak layers, involve large volumes of snow, and be quite dangerous and destructive. You can still find weak sugary basal layer snow lurking on upper elevation slopes facing northwest, north, northeast, and east.
The recent avalanche in Miller Bowl failed on weak faceted snow near the ground, 1-21-2020.
Additional Information
We noticed a few large fresh roof avalanches off metal barn roofs in the Bear Lake Area on Friday. Many are still holding lots of heavy snow, and gradual melting is causing them to drip and creep. Keep and eye on the kids, animals, and vehicles because more significant roof avalanche activity is likely in coming days.
Here's a quick look at a solo skier triggered avalanche in Miller Bowl, which occurred 1-19-2020
General Announcements
Are you looking to improve your avalanche skills? We are offering a Backcountry 101: Introduction to Avalanches class at Powder Mountain February 14-15. Info and sign up HERE
The anual CROWBAR backcountry ski race will be on Saturday, February 8. The unique and classic backcountry race will be held at the Swan Flat/Garden City Trailhead in upper Logan Canyon. There are four divisions (Junior, Recreation, Heavy Metal & Race) with different climbs, descents, and technical booters. Participants must carry avalanche rescue gear (beacon, shovel, probe) and can use alpine touring gear, telemark skis, or splitboards. Register on UltraSignup, or sign up to volunteer at this year's race!
Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, we have discount lift tickets available. All proceeds from these go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education! Get your tickets HERE.
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Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
I will update this forecast before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.