Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Saturday morning, January 25, 2020
Saturday morning, January 25, 2020
The danger is LOW on most slopes, the snow is stable, and avalanches are generally unlikely. Exceptions and areas with MODERATE danger exist on isolated upper elevation slopes facing northwest, north, east, and southeast where people might still be able to trigger dangerous avalanches failing on a deeply buried persistent weak layer.
- Use normal caution. Evaluate upper elevation terrain and snow carefully.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
It's 26°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel this morning, and there is 77 inches of total snow, containing 123% of normal SWE. Winds are currently blowing from the west around 15 mph, and it's 21°F at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station.
A couple inches of new snow from yesterday caps a thin rime-crust at upper elevations on all aspects in the northern part of the zone.
Expect mostly cloudy conditions in the mountains today, with 8500' high temperatures around 28°F, and 8 to 13 mph west-northwest winds. Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with low temperatures around 21°F, rising to around 27°F by morning, and 8 to 13 mph south-southwest wind. Snow will fall in the mountains on Sunday and continue into the night, with 2 to 6 inches possible. It will be cloudy tomorrow, with a high temperature near 32°F and 9 to 13 mph southwest wind. A second storm system will follow for late Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
Recent Avalanches
We are very sad to report an avalanche fatality that happened Saturday, 1-18-2020 above Farmington Canyon. A 18 year old, male snowmobiler was caught, fully buried and killed. The final report is available HERE. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends, family, rescuers, and everyone affected by this tragic accident.
Sunday, 1-19-2020, a solo skier triggered and was caught and carried by a huge avalanche in Miller Bowl near Tony Grove Lake. Luckily, the skier was spit out the flank at the bottom, just as the very deep pile of debris came to a stop. The avalanche on a repeater path at about 8700' was 4 to 5 feet deep and about 350 feet wide. It failed on a deeply buried sugary persistent weak layer near the ground with a loud thunderous roar, and took the skier under the snow for a harrowing spin-cycle ride. The very lucky skier lost both skis and ski poles, but is happy and grateful to have walked out alive.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible on isolated upper elevation slopes. Apparently, some avalanches can step down into buried persistent weak layers, involve large volumes of snow, and be quite dangerous and destructive. Recent activity in the zone shows that the weight from last week's snow and drifting was enough to reactivate the deeply buried October persistent weak layer on some slopes. You can still find this weak sugary basal layer lurking on upper elevation slopes facing northwest, north, and east.
Paige is approaching the crown on the western flank of last Sunday's Miller Bowl Avalanche, which failed on a deeply buried persistent weak layer.
Additional Information
We noticed a few large fresh roof avalanches off metal barn roofs in the Bear Lake Area yesterday. Many are still holding lots of heavy snow, and slow melting from slightly above freezing temperatures is causing them to drip and creep. Keep and eye on the kids, animals, and vehicles because more significant roof avalanche activity is likely in coming days.
Here is a short video about Saturday's tragic fatal accident in Farmington Canyon.
General Announcements
Are you looking to improve your avalanche skills? We are offering a Backcountry 101: Introduction to Avalanches class at Powder Mountain February 14-15. Info and sign up HERE
The anual CROWBAR backcountry ski race will be on Saturday, February 8. The unique and classic backcountry race will be held at the Swan Flat/Garden City Trailhead in upper Logan Canyon. There are four divisions (Junior, Recreation, Heavy Metal & Race) with different climbs, descents, and technical booters. Participants must carry avalanche rescue gear (beacon, shovel, probe) and can use alpine touring gear, telemark skis, or splitboards. Register on UltraSignup, or sign up to volunteer at this year's race!
Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, we have discount lift tickets available. All proceeds from these go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education! Get your tickets HERE.
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Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
I will update this forecast before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.