Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Saturday morning, January 11, 2020
Saturday morning, January 11, 2020
Heavy snow and strong west winds will cause rising avalanche danger in the backcountry. CONSIDERABLE danger already exists this morning on some upper and mid elevation slopes, and people are likely to trigger avalanches of wind drifted snow up to about 4 feet deep. Avalanches could fail on a persistent weak layer buried by the New Years Storm. Smaller avalanches of soft wind drifted or new powder snow are possible on many steep slopes and at all elevations. The danger level could rise to HIGH tonight, with natural avalanches becoming likely in some areas.
- Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. Use caution while route finding, and make conservative decisions.
- Avoid travel on or below steep wind drifted slopes.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
It's 17°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel this morning, and there is an inch of new snow from early this morning. The site picked up a couple feet of new snow with 1.6" SWE Wednesday night and Thursday. There is 71 inches of total snow, with 120% of average SWE for the date. It's 11°F at the CSI weather station at 9700' on Logan Peak, and southwest winds are currently blowing about 35 mph and gusting to 55 mph earlier this morning.
We found fine deep powder conditions in the backcountry yesterday, but today's heavy snow and drifting from southwest winds will cause the danger to rise and become more widespread. Dangerous avalanche conditions already exist on some drifted upper and mid-elevation slopes. So, don't let your guard down.
We found nice deep powder riding in the backcountry near Tony Grove Lake yesterday.
Expect heavy snow in the mountains today, with 7 to 11 inches of accumulation possible. 8500' high temperatures will be around 13°F, sustained west wind 18 to 24 mph, and wind chills around -14°F.! Snow showers will continue tonight, with 6 to 10 inches possible. Low temperatures are expected to be around 12°F, with 18 to 22 mph west winds, and wind chills around -7°F. Snow will continue tomorrow, with 4 to 8 inches possible, high temperatures around 18°F, and west-southwest winds 18 to 24 mph. Active and snowy weather is expected to continue through next week with colder than normal temperatures and several more storms in the forecast.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday a Rider triggered and rode out of an avalanche on a south facing slope @ 9000' in Boss Canyon, Franklin Basin near state line. The avalanche was about 15" deep x ~50' wide.
A rider triggered a 2' deep and 100' wide avalanche on an east facing slope at around 8200' in elevation near White Pine Creek on Tuesday, 1-7-2020. No one was caught or injured.
A close call occurred Saturday (1-4-2020) when a rider was caught, carried, and partially buried at about 9000' on an east facing slope above Hidden Lake in Gibson Basin, a couple miles north of the state line out of Beaver Creek Canyon. The avalanche of wind drifted snow was about 2' deep and around 150' wide.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
People are likely to trigger 1.5 to 4 foot deep avalanches of wind drifted snow on upper and some mid elevation slopes. Avalanches are possible on many other mid elevation and some lower elevation slopes as well.
- Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow near ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
- Wind slabs are often rounded and chalky looking, and they might sound hollow, like a drum.
- Soft fresh wind slabs can be quite sensitive, and are often remotely triggered. Hard wind slabs can be more devious, sometime allowing one to get out on them before releasing.
- Avoid ridge top cornices, which can break much further back than expected and start avalanches on slopes below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible on slopes steeper than about 30 degrees at upper and mid elevations. The cold weather Christmas week created sugary weak surface snow in many areas, and some slopes were plagued by feathery surface hoar before the New Years Storm. Some avalanches of wind drifted snow today might be triggered remotely, from a distance or below. Some slopes in the area may stay unstable for a while.
Yesterday's sled triggered avalanche in Boss Canyon was on a south facing slope at around 9000' in elevation, and we triggered a collapse on a south facing slope on White Pine Knob at about 8900'. Leading us to suspect potential instability on upper elevation south facing slopes.
We found stable but very weak sugary snow throughout the snowpack Thursday near the Spring Road at about 7500' on the Beaver Backside.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Loose powder sluffs and shallow soft slabs of drifted new snow are possible on steep slopes at all elevations. Even small avalanches can be quite dangerous if you get dragged into trees or other terrain traps below.
Additional Information
Paige discusses our concerns about the drifted in east faces in upper Providence Canyon:
We had a great time with the Avalanche 101 class up at Tony Grove on Saturday, 1-4-2020
General Announcements
The anual CROWBAR backcountry ski race will be on Saturday, February 8. The unique and classic backcountry race will be held at the Swan Flat/Garden City Trailhead in upper Logan Canyon. There are four divisions (Junior, Recreation, Heavy Metal & Race) with different climbs, descents, and technical booters. Participants must carry avalanche rescue gear (beacon, shovel, probe) and can use alpine touring gear, telemark skis, or splitboards. Register on UltraSignup, or sign up to volunteer at this year's race!
Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, we have discount lift tickets available. All proceeds from these go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education! Get your tickets HERE.
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Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
I will update this forecast before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.