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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia for
Tuesday, March 8, 2022
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E at and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are likely failing on a buried persistent weak layer 2-3 feet below the surface. This weak layer can also be found on slopes facing W and SE but sun and warm temperature last week have made avalanches on this weak layer less likely. A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on these slopes.
You will find a MODERATE danger for triggering an avalanche in wind drifted snow on all aspects above treeline.
South facing terrain at and below treeline offers a LOW danger.
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Weather and Snow
The latest round of snow is over leaving the mountains coated in a fresh blanket of white. Skies are clear this morning and temperatures are cold. Cold temperatures will remain today as the last trough takes its time to push out. Today should be a beautiful day with clear skies, sunshine, and 10,000' temps around 16 degrees. Winds will blow 10 to 15 mph out of the West.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard SNOTEL (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson SNOTEL (8858')
Snowpack
It's not been a huge load of new snow but with the fragile nature of the underlying snowpack, it has been enough for a return to dangerous conditions and human triggered avalanches, 1'-2' are likely. The problem is a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow that formed during the extended period of high pressure in Jan-Feb. Starting last week, this weak layer has been getting buried and a slab 1'-2' deep exists on top. New and wind drifted snow has added more stress to this weak layer and all that is needed is a trigger such as the weight of a skier or snowmobile. This problem exists primarily on slopes facing W-N-NE-E with possible outlying problems on upper elevevation slopes facing SE.
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanches have been reported from the Abajo Mountains.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow sits beneath a slab 1'-2' thick. New and wind drifted snow now sits on top of this slab adding more stress to the buried weak layer. Human triggered avalanches failing on this weak layer are likely, primarily on steep slopes facing NW-N-NE-E but W facing slopes are also suspect.
This video was shot in the La Sals on Saturday, March 5. The Abajos don't have as much snow on top, but they do have the weak, faceted layer underneath. This video is a good demonstration of how it is easy to find this weak layer of sugary snow. You'll want to avoid any steep slopes that harbor this layer.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds shifted to the NW and N around 5 PM yesterday. For about a 7 hour period they blew in the 10-25 mph range mainly out of the N. There is plenty of light density snow available for transport after the storm. This will have left fresh drifts in places we don't normally expect to find wind loading. Expect to find fresh, sensitive wind drifted snow on all aspects above treeline.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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