UDOT PLANNED AVALANCHE CLOSURES!!

Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Friday, March 4, 2022
The avalanche danger is MODERATE and human triggered avalanches 1'-2' deep, failing on a buried persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow are possible. You are most likely to encounter this problem on steep slopes facing the north half of the compass, with the highest likelihood existing right around treeline. With snow in the forecast through the weekend, expect increasing danger and a higher likelihood for triggering avalanches on this buried weak layer as new and wind drifted snow accumulate.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Overnight temps have again remained warm and are hovering right around freezing this morning at 10,000'. A low pressure system spinning off the coast of Southern California will move inland today. This will be the first in a series of systems to affect the region over the next several days. SW winds will be on the increase today with light snow showers developing by late afternoon. A weak cold front tonight will bring the best chance for snow with 3"-5" possible by late mid-morning on Saturday. Then we'll see a lull in the action before the next storm arrives Saturday afternoon - evening. I'm thinking 3"-5" are likely by Sunday. A final, weaker system moves through on Monday.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard SNOTEL (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson SNOTEL (8858')
Snowpack
Sun and very warm temps this week have had their way with exposed surfaces but without a solid re-freeze crusts will be punchy this morning. Sheltered, northerly aspects are where you will find the best snow, unfortunately, these are the same areas where you are most likely to find a problem. Though warm conditions this week have helped to strengthen and consolidate the snowpack, a real possibility still exists for triggering an avalanche 1'-2' on a buried persistent weak layer of weak, sugary, facets. This problem is becoming more isolated to slopes facing NW-N-NE but outlying problems may still exist on W and E facing slopes. The weakest snow can be find on shady slopes right around treeline and below, and I expect we will continue to experience signs of instability such as collapsing and whumphing in these areas. The bottom line is that I'm not ready to trust this weak layer, and with snow in the forecast for the weekend, I'm anticipating another round of dangerous conditions.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We've experienced a week of sensitive and active avalanche conditions as new snow was piled on top of weak, near surface facets that formed during the extended period of high pressure. This persistent weak layer now sits beneath a well consolidated slab 1'-2' thick. Time and warm temps have helped to strengthen the snowpack but signs of instability such as collapsing and whumphing continue to present themselves. It is definitely still possible to trigger an avalanche, primarily on steep slopes facing NW-N-E with the weakest underlying snow existing right around treeline and below. Above treeline, this weak layer is not as widespread but this just makes it more tricky. For now, I'm still not willing to trust any steep, northerly facing terrain. Let's keep it dialed back and see how this next round of snow stacks up.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With a lack of an overnight re-freeze, and unseasonably warm temps on tap again today, continue to be mindful of the potential for loose, wet avalanches as the day heats up. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. Get off of and out from under steep, sun exposed slopes when these signs are present. A rarer occurrence would be wet slab avalanches. These occur when there is liquid water in the snowpack, generally after a few days with no refreeze. Harder to predict, signs of instability remain the same.
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.